Proffer vs. stipulation: how most vaccine injury cases actually end
Most vaccine injury cases never get a ruling on causation. Of the 9,636 compensated cases in this registry, 86% ended by proffer or stipulation. The two words describe who proposed the number.
Proffer
A proffer is the government's own damages proposal. After the Secretary of Health and Human Services concedes entitlement, or a Special Master rules for the petitioner, the Department of Justice files a proffer stating the amount it believes the evidence supports, itemised into pain and suffering, past expenses, lost earnings and any life-care annuity. If the petitioner agrees, the Special Master adopts it. Because a proffer follows a documented damages record, proffered awards run higher: median $89K here, against $70K for stipulations.
Stipulation
A stipulation is a negotiated settlement in which the government does not concede that the vaccine caused the injury. The parties agree on a figure to end the case, the decision recites that the respondent denies causation, and the Special Master approves it. Stipulations are faster to reach and are the usual route in cases where the medical record is thin or the causation theory is untested. A stipulated award is not a finding about vaccines; the decision says so expressly.
Reasoned decisions
Only a minority of compensated cases carry a reasoned ruling on entitlement, and a smaller number still a reasoned damages ruling where the parties could not agree on the amount. Those are the decisions that create precedent and are collected on the Off-Table causation wins page.
| How the case ended | Compensated cases | Share | Median award | 25th–75th pct | Median time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proffer | 3,123 | 32% | $89K | $62K – $125K | 16 mo |
| Stipulation | 5,207 | 54% | $70K | $38K – $130K | 24 mo |
| Reasoned decision | 832 | 9% | $79K | $52K – $141K | 40 mo |
| Reasoned damages ruling | 287 | 3% | $128K | $84K – $174K | 29 mo |
Why it matters to a petitioner
If the government concedes, expect a proffer and a fuller award; if it contests causation but the case has settlement value, expect a stipulation, sooner and for less. A lawyer who has taken your injury type to hearing before knows which of the two is realistic, which is why the firm scorecard shows each firm's settled share next to its contested win rate.
Related: How cases are decided · Award distribution · Special Master scorecard
About this data. Computed from every published VICP decision indexed by this registry (13,292 cases as of 2026-09-11), from the public dockets of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Median figures exclude a small number of records with unusable award data. Most compensated cases resolve by stipulation or proffer (negotiated settlement) rather than a litigated finding; an award is the court's resolution of an individual legal claim, not a medical or scientific finding about vaccines generally. Past awards do not predict any individual outcome.