VICP Registry Case Source Bundle Canonical URL: https://vicp-registry.org/case/USCOURTS-cofc-1_07-vv-00605 Package ID: USCOURTS-cofc-1_07-vv-00605 Petitioner: Matthew Ramirez Filed: 2007-08-14 Decided: 2014-12-15 Vaccine: DTaP Vaccination date: 2005-03-25 Condition: Dravet syndrome Outcome: denied Award amount USD: AI-assisted case summary: On August 14, 2007, Nancy Barclay, as the legal representative of her minor son Matthew Ramirez, filed a petition for compensation under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Program. Matthew Ramirez was born on November 16, 2004, with a de novo frameshift mutation in his SCN1A gene, which predisposes individuals to Dravet syndrome. On March 25, 2005, at approximately four months old, Matthew received a second dose of the DTaP vaccine. That night, he developed a fever, and the following morning, he experienced a seizure lasting approximately 45 minutes. He was diagnosed with febrile seizures due to pneumonia, though a differential diagnosis included "vaccine reaction." Matthew experienced further unprovoked seizures on April 15 and April 25, 2005, leading to a diagnosis of epilepsy. By 2013, he experienced approximately ten seizures monthly and had significant developmental delays. Genetic testing in 2009 confirmed the SCN1A mutation, consistent with Dravet syndrome. Petitioner alleged that the DTaP vaccine significantly aggravated Matthew's Dravet syndrome, arguing that but for the vaccine, Matthew would have experienced less developmental delay. Petitioner's initial expert, Dr. Marcel Kinsbourne, opined that the DTaP vaccine caused Matthew's seizure disorder through several mechanisms. However, following decisions in other SCN1A cases, petitioner amended her theory to significant aggravation. Petitioner retained Dr. Jean-Ronel Corbier, a pediatric neurologist, who proposed three theories: (1) children with SCN1A mutations are vulnerable to DTaP vaccine reactions; (2) vaccination causes earlier onset of Dravet syndrome, leading to worse damage; and (3) the prolonged febrile seizure damaged HCN channels, causing permanent epileptic changes. The respondent, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, presented experts Dr. Gerald Raymond (clinical geneticist and child neurologist) and Dr. Max Wiznitzer (child neurologist). They opined that the SCN1A mutation was the sole cause of Matthew's condition and that the vaccination did not affect his development. A hearing was held on June 5-6, 2013. Special Master Christian J. Moran issued a decision on December 15, 2014, denying compensation. The Special Master found Dr. Corbier's theories unpersuasive, citing studies (Berkovic, McIntosh, Brunklaus, Yu) that indicated SCN1A mutations predetermine the outcome regardless of vaccination triggers. He also found Dr. Corbier's theory regarding HCN channel damage flawed, as HCN channels are distinct from SCN1A sodium channels, and Dr. Corbier admitted he was not an expert in channelopathies. The Special Master also determined that petitioner failed to prove the injury lasted more than six months, as Matthew recovered from the initial febrile seizure and pneumonia, and his subsequent developmental issues were attributed to the genetic mutation. The Court of Federal Claims, Judge Eric G. Bruggink, reviewed the decision and affirmed it on July 10, 2015 (reissued from June 15, 2015). Judge Bruggink agreed that the SCN1A mutation was the sole cause and that the vaccine-related initial seizure was not severe enough to meet the six-month requirement. He noted the conceptual difficulty in applying the "significant aggravation" framework to a child with an asymptomatic genetic predisposition, concluding that either the vaccine did not cause a lasting injury or the genetic mutation was the inevitable cause of the ongoing issues, thus precluding a finding of significant aggravation caused by the vaccine. Theory of causation field: Petitioner alleged that the DTaP vaccine administered on March 25, 2005, to Matthew Ramirez (born November 16, 2004) significantly aggravated his pre-existing de novo SCN1A frameshift mutation, which predisposes him to Dravet syndrome. Petitioner's expert, Dr. Jean-Ronel Corbier, proposed three theories: (1) SCN1A mutation carriers are vulnerable to DTaP vaccine reactions; (2) the vaccine caused an earlier onset of Dravet syndrome, leading to worse developmental outcomes; and (3) the prolonged febrile seizure following vaccination damaged HCN channels, causing permanent epileptic changes. Respondent's experts, Dr. Gerald Raymond and Dr. Max Wiznitzer, contended that the SCN1A mutation was the sole cause of Matthew's condition and the vaccine did not influence his development. Special Master Christian J. Moran denied compensation, finding Dr. Corbier's theories unpersuasive and contradicted by studies (Berkovic, McIntosh, Brunklaus, Yu) indicating SCN1A mutations determine outcome irrespective of vaccination. The Special Master also rejected the HCN channel theory due to the distinction between HCN and SCN1A channels and Dr. Corbier's lack of expertise. The severity requirement (injury lasting >6 months) was not met, as Matthew recovered from the initial vaccine-related febrile seizure and pneumonia, with subsequent issues attributed to the genetic mutation. The Court of Federal Claims affirmed, agreeing that the SCN1A mutation was the sole cause and that the initial vaccine-related seizure was not severe enough to meet the statutory requirement. The court also noted that the genetic mutation, though asymptomatic before vaccination, made the subsequent outcomes inevitable, thus precluding a finding of significant aggravation caused by the vaccine. Public staged source text: ================================================================================ DOCUMENT 1: USCOURTS-cofc-1_07-vv-00605-1 Date issued/filed: 2015-02-18 Pages: 37 Docket text: PUBLIC DECISION (Originally filed: 12/15/2014) regarding 119 DECISION of Special Master. Signed by Special Master Christian J. Moran. (tpj) Copy to parties. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 1 of 37 In the United States Court of Federal Claims OFFICE OF SPECIAL MASTERS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * NANCY BARCLAY, as the legal * representative of her minor son, * MATTHEW RAMIREZ, * No. 07-605V * Special Master Christian J. Moran Petitioner, * * Filed: December 15, 2014 v. * * Entitlement; significant aggravation; SECRETARY OF HEALTH * Dravet syndrome; SCN1A mutation; AND HUMAN SERVICES, * severity (six-month) requirement; * DTaP vaccine. Respondent. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Curtis R. Webb, Twin Falls, ID, for petitioner; Voris E. Johnson, Jr., United States Dep’t of Justice, Washington, DC, for respondent. PUBLISHED DECISION DENYING COMPENSATION1 Nancy Barclay is the mother of Matthew Ramirez, a developmentally delayed child, who is 10 years old. When he was born, Matthew had a mutation in a gene, known as the SCN1A gene, that creates a particular type of sodium channel. This sodium channel, which is known as Na 1.1, contributes to v preventing seizures. When Matthew was approximately six months old, he received a set of vaccines, including a diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (“DTaP”) vaccine. Later that day, Matthew suffered his first seizure. 1 The E-Government Act of 2002, Pub. L. No. 107-347, 116 Stat. 2899, 2913 (Dec. 17, 2002), requires that the Court post this decision on its website. Pursuant to Vaccine Rule 18(b), the parties have 14 days to file a motion proposing redaction of medical information or other information described in 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12(d)(4). Any redactions ordered by the special master will appear in the document posted on the website. Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 2 of 37 This first seizure is now recognized as the first manifestation of Dravet syndrome. People suffering from Dravet syndrome typically experience various types of seizures and developmental delay. The developmental delay can vary in severity from mild to severe. Here, Ms. Barclay alleges that the DTaP vaccine significantly aggravated Matthew’s Dravet syndrome. In other words, Ms. Barclay maintains that “but for” the DTaP vaccine, Matthew would have been less delayed. She seeks compensation through the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, 42 U.S.C. § 300aa—10 through 34 (2006). Her primary source of evidence is the opinion of Jean-Ronel Corbier, a pediatric neurologist. The Secretary disagrees with Ms. Barclay’s allegation. The Secretary has presented opinions from Max Wiznitzer, a pediatric neurologist, and Gerald Raymond, a neurologist and geneticist. Both Dr. Wiznitzer and Dr. Raymond maintain that the DTaP vaccination did not affect the degree to which Matthew is delayed. In their view, the SCN1A mutation was sufficient, by itself, to cause Matthew’s outcome. For the reasons discussed in more detail below in sections VI and VII, the Secretary’s position is persuasive. Section VI discusses Ms. Barclay’s claim that the DTaP vaccine significantly aggravated Matthew’s Dravet syndrome. Ms. Barclay has failed to demonstrate that the DTaP vaccination affected Matthew in any meaningful way. Conversely, the Secretary has established that the SCN1A mutation most likely determined Matthew’s outcome. Section VII reviews a separate deficit in Ms. Barclay’s case: she failed to present preponderant evidence that any harm caused by the DTaP vaccine lasted more than six months as the Vaccine Act requires. The simplest reason for this case’s outcome is that Dr. Wiznitzer’s and Dr. Raymond’s opinions were more persuasive than the opinion from Dr. Corbier. Dr. Wiznitzer and Dr. Raymond explained the relevant medical concepts and showed how those principles were the foundations for their opinions. Dr. Corbier did not. Dr. Wiznitzer and Dr. Raymond supported their opinions with articles from peer- reviewed medical journals. Dr. Corbier often misinterpreted or misconstrued the most important articles. Finally, the academic and professional backgrounds of the Secretary’s experts made them better qualified than Dr. Corbier to discuss the issues in the case. 2 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 3 of 37 I. Biographies of Witnesses The parties rely upon the doctors whom they retained to explain the significance of events in Matthew’s life. Thus, the following sections provide some context for the opinions discussed throughout this decision. A. Dr. Corbier Dr. Corbier graduated from medical school at Michigan State University. Exhibit 18 at 1. He completed his residency training also through Michigan State University and then went to Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, and the University of Cincinnati, to do his neurology fellowship training. Tr. 12. In 2002, Dr. Corbier became board-certified in neurology with a special qualification in child neurology. Exhibit 18 at 2. Dr. Corbier has been in clinical practice, as a full-time general pediatric neurologist, since 2000. For six years, he practiced in Montgomery, Alabama, before moving to Concord, North Carolina, where he has practiced since 2007. Tr. 12; exhibit 18 at 2-3. Through his practice, Dr. Corbier has “been able to see a lot of kids with a variety of neurological problems including epilepsy, and in severe cases, like Dravet and other conditions.” Tr. 13. Dr. Corbier has treated “a handful” of patients with Dravet syndrome, some of whom he diagnosed himself. Tr. 92. Dr. Corbier has written two self-published books about autism, but has not written any articles published in peer-reviewed journals. Further, because Dr. Corbier’s professional work occurs in a clinical practice, his teaching responsibilities are limited to a small number of residents that circulate through a clinic. Tr. 91-92. B. Dr. Raymond Dr. Raymond graduated from medical school at the University of Connecticut. Tr. 221. Subsequently, he completed a residency in pediatrics at Johns Hopkins, and then went to Massachusetts General Hospital to study neurology with an emphasis on child neurology. Id. Dr. Raymond spent a year 3 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 4 of 37 abroad at the Université catholique de Louvain in Brussels, and then returned to Massachusetts General to complete a fellowship in genetics and teratology.2 Id. Dr. Raymond is board-certified in clinical genetics, as well as neurology with a special qualification in child neurology. Tr. 223. According to Dr. Raymond, fewer than ten other individuals hold dual certifications in these areas. Tr. 223. Dr. Raymond has been invited to give lectures in the field of neurogenetics, and has reviewed publications for several medical journals. Tr. 226. Further, Dr. Raymond has several of his own publications in the field of neurogenetics. Id. Dr. Raymond is currently employed as a Professor of Neurology, and as Director of Pediatric Neurology, at the University of Minnesota. Tr. 220-21. In his position, Dr. Raymond conducts clinical research, focusing predominantly on the interaction between neurology and genetics. Tr. 222. In the clinical side of his practice, Dr. Raymond’s patient population is drawn from individuals who have neurogenetic issues, including Dravet syndrome. Tr. 222-24. C. Dr. Wiznitzer Dr. Wiznitzer graduated from medical school at Northwestern University. Tr. 335. He completed a pediatrics residency at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, a developmental pediatrics fellowship at the Cincinnati Center for Developmental Disorders, and a child neurology fellowship at the University of Pennsylvania Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Tr. 336. He then finished his education with a National Institutes of Health-funded fellowship in higher cortical functions in children at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York. Id. Dr. Wiznitzer is board-certified in pediatrics and neurology with special qualification in child neurology and in neurodevelopmental disabilities. Tr. 339. He has written approximately 60 articles published in peer-reviewed journals, and serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Child Neurology and Lancet Neurology. 2 Teratology is “the branch of embryology and pathology which deals with abnormal development and the production of congenital anomalies. ” Dorland’s Illustrated Medical Dictionary 1883 (32d ed. 2012). 4 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 5 of 37 Since 1986, Dr. Wiznitzer has worked in Cleveland, Ohio, at Rainbow Babies & Children’s Hospital as a child neurologist. Id. He currently is responsible for the outpatient practice, and also serves on the hospital’s inpatient service. In his clinical practice, Dr. Wiznitzer commonly treats patients with epilepsy, and has treated 6-10 children with Dravet syndrome. Tr. 342-43. Dr. Wiznitzer is also an Associate Professor of Pediatric Neurology and International Health at Case Western Reserve University. Tr. 338. Collectively, these doctors described the relevant concepts and principles underlying Dravet syndrome. II. SCN1A Genes and Dravet Syndrome At conception, the embryo receives a set of genes from its mother and father. Tr. 229. The set of genes may contain spontaneous mutations, meaning that neither the mother nor father carried the particular gene. These spontaneous mutations are said to arise de novo. See Dorland’s at 1214; Tr. 169, 240. Genes contain DNA. DNA is composed of sequences of four nucleotides: adenine, thymine, guanine, and cytosine. Billups-Rothenberg, Inc. v. Assoc. Reg’l and Univ. Pathologists, Inc., 642 F.3d 1031, 1032 (Fed. Cir. 2011). A sequence of nucleotides in a gene is transcribed and translated by a cell to produce a chain of amino acids. Tr. 231-33. In translation, the mRNA translates the amino acid sequence into a protein. Tr. 234. A set of three amino acids determines the type of protein being created. Tr. 233; see also Billups-Rothenberg, at 1032 (discussing genes, amino acids, and proteins). Genes affect traits of individuals. Tr. 295. For example, eye color is determined by genes. Tr. 154, 296. Genes are expressed at certain times in a person’s development. The medical term for how genes are turned on/off is methylation. Tr. 160, 294. For example, Huntington’s disease is a genetically caused disease that appears later in life, usually during the fourth decade. Tr. 155, 158-59, 419-20, Dorland’s at 536. Mutations in genes can produce a variety of outcomes. Some mutations are benign, such as when one amino acid is substituted for a similar amino acid. At the other extreme, some genetic combinations may not be consistent with life. Tr. 284. Factors contributing to the extent to which a genetic mutation affects a person’s health, if at all, include the type of mutation, the location of the mutation, 5 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 6 of 37 whether the mutation arose in a conserved region,3 and whether the mutation was inherited or arose de novo. Tr. 236-40 (Dr. Raymond); see also Tr. 166-69 (Dr. Corbier). The brain’s development is largely determined by genes. In a child’s first six months, neurons are growing rapidly. Tr. 157-58. Within the infant’s brain, sodium channels evolve in the first six months of life. Humans contain a variety of sodium channels, which are part of cells that are incorporated into different organs. Tr. 241; Escayg at 1650; Lossin at 114.4 Sodium channels regulate electrical excitability. Escagy at 1650. The channel is activated by membrane depolarization resulting in increased permeability to sodium ions. Id. Later, the sodium channel closes, decreasing the permeability of sodium ions and the membrane returns to resting level. Id. As a fetus and shortly after birth, humans and other mammals rely on a sodium channel known as Na 1.3. Tr. 362.5 At around two-to-three months of v age, a different sodium channel, Na 1.1, becomes predominant. Tr. 300; see also v Tr. 247-48. The Na 1.1 form is primarily expressed in GABAergic interneurons. v Tr. 242, 359. These neurons help maintain balance in the brain and an imbalance can lead to seizures. Tr. 243, 247. A gene primarily responsible for the body’s creation of the Na 1.1 sodium v channel is known as the SCN1A gene. Tr. 51, 259. The ensuing protein has more than 2000 amino acids. Lossin at 115. A mutation in an SCN1A gene can have a deleterious effect on a person. Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer, as discussed below, opined that the SCN1A mutation in Matthew was the sole cause of his developmental delay because the mutation prevented the creation of a properly functioning sodium channel. Without a properly functioning sodium channel, it was inevitable that Matthew would have seizures. While Dr. Corbier did not 3 A conserved region is an aspect that is preserved through evolution in many species. The repetition of genes suggests that changes are not easily tolerated. Tr. 265, 269. 4 This decision cites to medical articles by the last name of the first author. A full citation is provided at the end of the decision. 5 The discussion about sodium channels largely relies upon Dr. Raymond because Dr. Corbier did not know much about sodium channels. Tr. 160. 6 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 7 of 37 agree, he still acknowledged that “SCN1A mutation is not good.” Tr. 165. Some people with an SCN1A mutation develop Dravet syndrome.6 Dravet syndrome is a clinical diagnosis, meaning doctors identify the illness by how the child presents. Tr. 255, 355-57. Typical presentation includes an onset, between four and eight months, of clonic or hemi-clonic seizures. The initial seizure is sometimes an episode of status epilepticus. In the second or third year of life, the seizures evolve into different types of seizures including myoclonic seizures, absence seizures, and complex partial seizures. Although the initial development is normal, by the time the child becomes a toddler, his or her development stagnates. Tr. 350-51, 358. After a doctor suspects a child suffers from Dravet syndrome, the doctor will order genetic testing to confirm. Tr. 255-56 (Dr. Raymond), 357 (Dr. Wiznitzer). Dravet syndrome encompasses a range of severity. Tr. 357. Particular subtypes have been known as generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures (GEFS), severe myoclonic epilepsy – borderline (SMEB), and severe myoclonic epilepsy in infancy (SMEI) and these have been considered to be conditions occurring on a spectrum. Tr. 278-79. To understand more about the consequence of an SCN1A mutation, researchers have studied animals with mutations in their SCN1A gene. While animal studies do not always inform a situation involving people, Isaac v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 108 Fed. Cl. 743, 752-53 (2013) (quoting 2011 report from the Institute of Medicine), aff’d, 540 Fed. Appx. 999 (Fed. Cir. 2013), the experts agreed that rodents can model the human condition with regard to an SCN1A mutation. Tr. 110-11 (Dr. Corbier), 184 (discussion of Dr. Corbier’s report), 208-09 (Dr. Corbier), 281-87 (Dr. Raymond). One advantage of animal models is that they reduce the influence of any environmental factors. Tr. 318-19 (Dr. Raymond). A group of researchers led by Dr. William Catteral have used rodents with SCN1A mutations in a series of experiments. 6 Some SCN1A mutations are also associated with other conditions such as migraines. Tr. 191. The difference in outcome, as discussed in the text below, depends upon factors such as the location of the mutation and the nature of the mutation. 7 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 8 of 37 The mice in these experiments are known as “knock out mice.” A portion of the mouse’s SCN1A gene has been deleted (or knocked out). This produces a truncated mutation. Tr. 245-46, 282. The mice with this mutation display symptoms analogous to the symptoms of some humans with Dravet syndrome. According to Dr. Raymond, the development of these mice is consistent with SMEI. In one study, researchers demonstrated that heating mice to replicate a fever provoked a seizure in genetically mutated mice only when the mice were a certain age. Tr. 245-46; Oakley at 4. Dr. Raymond explained that the delay in onset corresponds to the switch from Na 1.3 to Na 1.1. Tr. 247-48. Dr. Corbier v v agreed. Tr. 182, 532-36. Another experiment discovered a different consequence of an SCN1A mutation. Unlike the Oakley experiment in which the mice were heated to provoke a seizure, the mice in the second experiment were not heated. They were left alone. Without the introduction of any outside (environmental) factor, the mice with a defective SCN1A gene had seizures spontaneously.7 Yu at 1144; Tr. 248; see also Tr. 284-88. For the proposition that these knock out mice suffer seizures spontaneously, other researchers have cited the Yu article. See Catarino; Escayg (also citing Oakley), and Martin. Another group of researchers, who are from Japan, explored the long-term consequence of the genetic mutation in the knock out mice. The researchers found that the defect in the Na 1.1 “causes autistic behaviors and cognitive decline in v addition to epileptic seizures” in the knock out mice “as well as in patients with Dravet syndrome.” Ito at 29. As discussed by Dr. Raymond, Tr. 318-19, the researchers’ conclusion was even stronger in dismissing environmental factors. They stated: Although it has been proposed that polytherapy and long- term use of anticonvulsants have potentials to affect the cognitive function and behaviors of Dravet syndrome patients, . . . our present results on mouse models suggest that the Na 1.1 haploinsufficiency is fundamentally v responsible for the behavioral and cognitive impairments 7 Mice that had no SCN1A gene (“null mice”) died within 15 days of birth. Yu at 1143. 8 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 9 of 37 in Dravet syndrome patients and those impairments should occur in patients even without medications. Ito at 39. Dr. Wiznitzer interpreted this article as well as an article by Ceulemans as showing the cause of the developmental problems is “not just the seizures themselves. The excitation / inhibition abnormality associated with the sodium channelopathy also impacts cognitive development in an independent manner from the epilepsy.” Tr. 411-12. III. Facts8 Matthew was born on November 16, 2004. Exhibit 3 at 3. Although no one knew this in 2004, Matthew was born with an abnormality in his SCN1A gene. Tr. 95 (Dr. Corbier), 263 (Dr. Raymond). The results of testing, which took place in 2009, established the foundation for the disputed issues in this case. The report from Athena Laboratories, Inc. stated: “This individual possesses a DNA sequence variant that is either a previously reported disease-associated mutation or is predicted to be a disease-associated mutation. This test result is consistent with a diagnosis of, or a predisposition to develop, SMEI or SMEB, the severe phenotypes associated with SCN1A mutations.” Exhibit 13B at 8.9 This loss caused a “frameshift” change in the amino acid. Id. at 9;10 see also Tr. 93 (Dr. Corbier’s discussion of results from Athena), 261 (Dr. Raymond’s discussion of results from Athena). The frameshift mutation essentially prevents Matthew from producing the expected protein. Tr. 259 (Dr. Raymond), 389 and 426 (Dr. Wiznitzer). 8 The parties generally accept the accuracy of medical records created close in time to the events being memorialized. Resp’t’s Posthr’g Br., filed Nov. 22, 2013, at 1. 9 The precise mutation was a deletion of 10 base pairs at nucleotide position 3867-3876 / codon position 1289-1292. This type of mutation is known as a frameshift mutation. 10 Later testing on Matthew’s parents revealed that neither of Matthew’s parents possessed this same mutation. Thus, Matthew’s mutation is called a “de novo” mutation, meaning he did not inherit it. A de novo mutation “increases the probability that this predicted disease-associated mutation could be causative of a severe phenotype.” Exhibit 13B at 8. 9 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 10 of 37 The SCN1A mutation did not appear to affect Matthew’s initial development. At his first two well-baby visits, which occurred on November 30, 2004, and January 21, 2005, Matthew appeared well. His pediatrician did not note any concerns about his development. Exhibit 4 at 2, 4; see also Tr. 14. During these initial months, Matthew’s brain was relying upon a fetal version of a sodium channel, Na 1.3. Tr. 509; see also Escayg at 1650 (describing different types of v sodium channels). On March 25, 2005, Matthew had another well-baby appointment. He, again, appeared to be healthy. He received a set of vaccinations, including a second dose of the DTaP vaccine. Exhibit 4 at 2, 4. Around 11:00 p.m., Matthew developed a fever. His mother gave him infant Motrin. Exhibit 5A at 12; see also exhibit 1 (Ms. Barclay’s affidavit) at 2. Around 6:00 a.m., Ms. Barclay was feeding Matthew again. According to a nurse’s report created that day, Matthew felt cool to his mother’s touch. Exhibit 5A at 12.11 At 6:10 a.m., Matthew had a “single isolated seizure. Seizure activity lasted (20 minutes as per mom). He lost consciousness.” Id. at 10. Matthew’s parents brought him to a local emergency room. He had a fever on arrival and was still seizing. The doctor gave him Versed and his seizures abated within one minute. Exhibit 5A at 11, 13. The total time of Matthew’s seizure was approximately 45 minutes. Id. at 19. The experts testified about Matthew’s first seizure. Tr. 14 and 55 (Dr. Corbier), 424 (Dr. Wiznitzer). The doctor admitted him to the hospital. After admission, doctors ordered a multitude of tests and most were negative. Among the studies that were performed on Matthew were an EEG, a CT scan of his brain, and an MRI. The EEG was normal. Exhibit 5A at 42-44. The CT was normal. Id. at 32. The MRI was essentially normal. Id. at 37-39. Although most were negative, one test with a positive result is arguably significant. An X-ray revealed infiltrates in both lungs. Id. at 36. This test led a doctor to 11 Ms. Barclay’s July 26, 2007 affidavit stated that Matthew “was again warm when I fed him at about 6:00 a.m.” Exhibit 1 at 2. It is likely that the record created within one hour of the event, the nurse’s note, is more accurate than the affidavit, which was created more than two years after the hospitalization. See Cucuras v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 993 F.2d 1525 (Fed. Cir. 1993). 10 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 11 of 37 diagnose Matthew as having pneumonia, and his final diagnosis was “[f]ebrile seizures due to pneumonia.” Id. at 18.12 Matthew remained in the hospital from March 26, 2005, until March 29, 2005. Exhibit 5A at 18 (discharge summary). When he was discharged, Matthew was administered amoxicillin and his final diagnosis stated febrile seizures due to pneumonia. Exhibit 5A at 18. The testifying experts differed in their assessment of Matthew’s health when he was leaving the hospital. Dr. Corbier opined that the March 26, 2005 seizure altered Matthew’s brain. Tr. 15, 64-65. He held this opinion despite acknowledging that electroencephalogram and neuroradiological tests were normal. Tr. 97, 216. In Dr. Corbier’s view, “an immature brain exposed to prolonged febrile seizure will then not have just an isolated event but will have further seizures.” Tr. 99. In contrast, Dr. Wiznitzer took these same normal test results as evidence that Matthew had returned to baseline. Tr. 423-25. Dr. Wiznitzer also emphasized that Matthew’s problem was (and is) in his “wiring.” As such, the March 26, 2005 seizure did not affect Matthew’s brain. The “wiring” defect happened when Matthew was born with a defective SCN1A gene. Tr. 423. On April 15, 2005, and April 25, 2005, Matthew had additional seizures. Tr. 15-16. Unlike the March 26, 2005 seizure, the April 15, 2005 seizure was unprovoked.13 Exhibit 5B at 52-62; Tr. 17. An EEG performed on April 15 to April 16, 2005, indicated that Matthew had some slowing in the background and was interpreted as abnormal. Exhibit 6 at 25-26. After the April 25, 2005 seizure, Matthew satisfied the criteria for being epileptic, which are two or more unprovoked seizures. Dorland’s at 633, accord 12 A pediatric neurologist stated that Matthew had “[f]ocal, prolonged seizures. Complex Febrile Seizure vs. Vaccine Reaction vs. Focal Seizure Disorder.” Exhibit 5 at 22 (Mar. 27, 2005). This notation, which was before the discovery of the SCN1A gene, is the closest a doctor saying that Matthew reacted adversely to the vaccine. 13 An “unprovoked” seizure is one that occurs without an identified trigger, such as a fever or head injury. 11 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 12 of 37 Tr. 349 (Dr. Wiznitzer). The doctors discovered the basis for Matthew’s epilepsy in June 2009. Athena Diagnostics found that he had a mutation in his SCN1A gene. Exhibit 13B at 16. Following this discovery, Matthew’s treating doctors diagnosed him as suffering from Dravet syndrome. Exhibit 16 at 43-44. The testifying experts all agree that Matthew suffers from Dravet syndrome. Tr. 20 (Dr. Corbier), 227 (Dr. Raymond), 446 (Dr. Wiznitzer). The question in this litigation on which the experts disagree is whether the March 25, 2005 DTaP vaccine affected Matthew’s development. Since he started having seizures, Matthew has not developed normally. Various anticonvulsant medicines have not controlled his seizures. He experiences approximately ten seizures each month. He speaks sentences that are three or four words in length. He can walk but has difficulty catching a ball. Exhibit 40 at 1-2; Tr. 18. IV. Procedural History Ms. Barclay began this action when she filed a petition on August 14, 2007, alleging that the DTaP vaccine caused Matthew to suffer a severe seizure disorder and this seizure disorder led to developmental delays. Pet. 1-2. Ms. Barclay supported her allegations by filing some of the pertinent medical records. In the initial status conference, held on September 20, 2007, the Secretary reported that she had informally requested additional medical records. Ms. Barclay’s attorney also represented that he had sent the file to an expert for an opinion. This expert was Marcel Kinsbourne, a pediatric neurologist. Dr. Kinsbourne summarized Matthew’s medical history. Dr. Kinsbourne noted that his presentation “is consistent with the diagnosis of severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy (SMEI) also known as Dravet’s syndrome.” Exhibit 9 at 2. Dr. Kinsbourne cited the National Childhood Encephalopathy Study, a study of British children who received the whole-cell diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (“DPT”) vaccine and Dr. Kinsbourne also explained why, a study involving whole-cell DTP provided meaningful information about a vaccine containing acellular pertussis. Id. at 3-5. According to Dr. Kinsbourne, a vaccine containing pertussis - -- whether whole cell or acellular --- can cause a seizure disorder via three 12 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 13 of 37 mechanisms: (1) blocking G proteins at receptor sites, (2) increasing the production of a cytokine known as interleukin 1beta, and (3) prompting a fever that “may induce neurochemical changes that lower the seizure threshold.” Id. at 3-4. Dr. Kinsbourne’s opinion was that the DTaP vaccine caused Matthew’s problems. Dr. Kinsbourne explained: Matthew Ramirez had status epilepticus within 24 hours of his DTaP vaccination. . . . There is no evidence in the medical records for any alternative causation either for the onset seizure or for the residual seizure disorder. . . . [I]t is my opinion, to a reasonable degree of medical probability that Matthew Ramirez’s seizure disorder was caused by the DPT [sic] vaccine. Id. at 5-6. The parties discussed Dr. Kinsbourne’s report in a March 4, 2008 status conference. The Secretary requested medical records about the extent of Matthew’s developmental delay and any genetic testing. Ms. Barclay’s attorney represented that there had not been any genetic testing for Matthew. The Secretary filed her report, pursuant to Vaccine Rule 4, on May 5, 2008. The Secretary reviewed the medical records and noted that although a doctor had recommended genetic testing, the exhibits did not contain the results of any genetic testing. Resp’t’s Rep’t at 4 n.2 (citing exhibit 5 at 115, 120). The Secretary also argued that Dr. Kinsbourne’s opinion was not reliable. To support her criticism of Dr. Kinsbourne, the Secretary relied upon the report of Dr. Wiznitzer. Id. at 10-11. Dr. Wiznitzer accepted the diagnosis of SMEI, although he recommended that Matthew be tested. Exhibit A at 3, 6. In Dr. Wiznitzer’s view, “SMEI is genetically determined.” Id. at 3. He also maintained that “there is no evidence for aggravation of an SCN1A gene mutation by environmental factors.” Id. In addition to the emphasis on genetics, Dr. Wiznitzer challenged the potentially causal mechanisms identified by Dr. Kinsbourne. Dr. Wiznitzer disputed the reliability of the G-protein theory and the interleukin 1beta theory. He asserted that the NCES data did not assist Ms. Barclay because it studied a whole- cell pertussis vaccine, which Matthew did not receive. Id. at 4-5. 13 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 14 of 37 Dr. Wiznitzer addressed Matthew’s fever after the DTaP vaccine. In Dr. Wiznitzer’s view, the cause of this fever was pneumonia. Dr. Wiznitzer opined that, in any event, the initial post-vaccination fever did not affect Matthew’s development because “children with SMEI always manifest the disorder” even if they do not have a fever. Id. at 5. A status conference was held two days after the Secretary filed her Rule 4 report and Dr. Wiznitzer’s expert report. The Secretary continued to press for the submission of additional medical records about Matthew and his development, especially the results of any genetic testing. Order, filed May 8, 2008 at 1. Ms. Barclay’s counsel aptly condensed the issue: do genes make a person develop epilepsy or do genes make a person vulnerable to developing epilepsy? Id. To answer this question, Ms. Barclay’s attorney stated that he would seek a supplemental report from Dr. Kinsbourne, although Dr. Kinsbourne’s schedule, which included testifying in the autism omnibus cases, would probably prevent a prompt response. Id. Approximately 18 months passed during which Ms. Barclay filed successive motions for enlargement of time and status reports. On October 5, 2010, Ms. Barclay filed pediatric neurology records including the Athena Diagnostics Report. Exhibit 13B. As discussed throughout this decision, Athena identified a mutation in Matthew’s SCN1A gene. Id. at 16. At the ensuing status conference, the parties discussed possible next steps. Options included obtaining a supplemental report from Dr. Kinsbourne and waiting for additional developments in other cases involving mutations in an SCN1A gene.14 In a December 15, 2010 status report, Ms. Barclay stated “[t]he Petitioner would prefer the proceedings in this case be stayed pending the resolution of the appeals in Stone and Hammit.” 14 On four occasions, Dr. Kinsbourne has testified that vaccines caused an injury in children with an SCN1A mutation. On May 14-15, 2009, Dr. Kinsbourne testified at a combined hearing for both Stone and Hammitt, and on October 8, and 9, 2009, he testified at a combined hearing for Snyder and Harris. Mr. Webb represented the petitioner in Hammitt. Hammitt v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 07-170V, 2011 WL 1135878, at *1 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar. 4, 2011), mot. for rev. denied, 98 Fed. Cl. 719 (Fed. Cl. 2011), aff'd sub nom. Stone v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 676 F.3d 1373 (Fed. Cir. 2012). 14 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 15 of 37 Again, months passed without much progress. In an August 30, 2011 status conference, the parties explored the status of the case. Ms. Barclay’s counsel suggested obtaining an additional expert. To this suggestion, the Secretary’s attorney stated that it was petitioner’s prerogative to explore. If petitioner obtained a new expert, then the case might be worth pursuing. Ms. Barclay’s attorney defined the issue as whether prolonged seizures in a child with an SCN1A mutation damage the child’s brain. This issue, according to Ms. Barclay’s attorney, was not presented in Hammit or Stone. Ms. Barclay filed a report from Jean-Ronel Corbier, a pediatric neurologist. In a nutshell, Dr. Corbier’s opinion is that a prolonged seizure, especially a prolonged febrile seizure, can change the infant’s brain. Dr. Corbier cited articles by McClelland, Dube, and Bender to support the reliability of his opinion. Exhibit 17 at 3-5. To Dr. Corbier, the presence of a mutation in the SCN1A gene did not automatically determine that a person would suffer Dravet syndrome, as Matthew does. According to Dr. Corbier and the literature he cited, mutations in the SCN1A produce a range of outcomes. For example, some patients develop a more benign condition, generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS+). Other patients develop familial hemiplegic migraines or familial autism. Dr. Corbier interpreted this spectrum of disorders as meaning that genetics are not a sufficient explanation. He asked: “[N]ow that we have identified a genetic mutation that seems very important in children with Dravet syndrome, given the wide variability in expression, what other factors including environmental ones might be present?” Id. at 10. The environmental factor at issue here is the DTaP vaccine. Citing McIntosh and Tro-Bauman, Dr. Corbier stated that a vaccination leads to earlier seizures. Exhibit 17 at 11, 14. An earlier seizure links to Dr. Corbier’s initial point that prolonged febrile seizures damage the infant’s brain. Dr. Corbier discussed Matthew’s case in light of these general principles. Dr. Corbier stated: “The presence of an SCN1A [mutation] undoubtedly represents a strong known risk factor for the development of Matthew’s epilepsy and Dravet syndrome. It also made him much more sensitive to the effects of DTaP and fever given his immature brain.” Exhibit 17 at 15. He continued: “Like the underlying SCN1A mutation, DTaP made as [sic] significant contribution to the development of Matthew’s epilepsy and Dravet syndrome.” Id. 15 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 16 of 37 In the ensuing status conference, the Secretary aggressively questioned the utility of devoting more resources from the Vaccine Injury Trust Fund to this case. The Secretary stated that the undersigned special master had already determined that a prolonged seizure did not affect the child’s outcome. Snyder v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07-59V, 2011 WL 3022544, at *2, *30-31, *35-36 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July 21, 2011). The undersigned responded that the Court of Federal Claims did not agree with the analysis and, therefore, the special master’s decision could not prevent a hearing in this case. Snyder v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 102 Fed. Cl. 305 (2011). Since a hearing was nearly inevitable, the Secretary planned to obtain more expert reports.15 Before the Secretary filed her expert reports, Ms. Barclay submitted a supplemental report from Dr. Corbier. This supplemental report discussed whether pneumonia could have caused Matthew’s initial post-vaccination fever. In Dr. Corbier’s view, the seizure caused the pneumonia. Exhibit 38. The Secretary procured two reports --- an initial report from Dr. Raymond, and a supplemental report from Dr. Wiznitzer. Dr. Raymond provided a basic explanation for how SCN1A genes lead to the production of a sodium channel. When a defect in the genes causes an alteration in the normal structure of the sodium channel, the sodium channel does not function properly. Exhibit I at 3-6. Dr. Raymond stated that “it is very clear that based on the present animal investigations, that there is no need to invoke environmental modifiers to explain disease onset or progression.” Id. at 6. In addition, Dr. Raymond disagreed with much of Dr. Corbier’s opinion. Most notably, Dr. Raymond questioned the accuracy of Dr. Corbier’s assertion that an earlier onset of Dravet syndrome caused a worse outcome. Dr. Raymond’s opinion was that the onset did not affect the outcome and he cited articles by McIntosh, Tro-Baumann, and Brunklaus. Id. at 9-11. 15 During the status conference the Secretary noted that Snyder was not yet final. Later, the Secretary filed a notice of appeal, which was docketed as case number 2013-5068 in the Federal Circuit. Later still, on January 28, 2014, in a nonprecedential disposition, the Federal Circuit reversed the Court of Federal Claims and reinstated the (undersigned) special master’s findings that the SCN1A gene was the sole cause of the Dravet syndrome. Snyder v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 553 Fed. Appx. 494 (Fed. Cir. 2014). 16 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 17 of 37 Dr. Raymond’s conclusion supported the Secretary’s position that compensation should not be awarded to Ms. Barclay. Dr. Raymond said that: “Matthew is a child with severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy and developmental delays diagnosed as Dravet syndrome secondary to a mutation in his SCN1A gene. This is the sole cause of his epilepsy condition. It was not caused []or exacerbated by any of the immunizations that he received.” Id. at 11. Dr. Wiznitzer reached the same conclusion. He stated that the finding of a mutation in Matthew’s SCN1A gene “leads to the conclusion that Matthew Ramirez’s SCN1A mutation by itself explains and caused his clinical neurological disorder – Dravet syndrome.” Exhibit K at 2. Like Dr. Raymond, Dr. Wiznitzer stated that the onset of seizures did not affect the outcome. Dr. Wiznitzer relied upon the McIntosh, Brunklaus, and Ragona studies. Id. at 2-4. Dr. Wiznitzer’s emphasis on the genetic source of Matthew’s neurologic problem led him to describe the question of pneumonia as “irrelevant.” Id. at 5. A status conference followed the submission of these two reports. Ms. Barclay indicated that he did not intend to call Dr. Kinsbourne to testify. Instead, Ms. Barclay wanted to obtain a second supplemental report from Dr. Corbier. In this same status conference, the parties discussed consolidating this case with Santini, No. 06-725V, another case in which the infant-vaccinee (Aydien Omidvar) had an SCN1A mutation and in which the experts were the same. Ms. Barclay filed the second supplemental report from Dr. Corbier on April 4, 2013, as exhibit 39. The basic thrust of this report was to emphasize the contributions from environmental factors. He stated “the general discovery of an SCN1A mutation and its impact on the sodium channel in epileptic patients can explain why patients with Dravet syndrome can be so vulnerable to certain triggers, among which is the DTaP vaccination.” Exhibit 39 at 4. In conjunction with that report, Ms. Barclay presented her pre-hearing brief. Ms. Barclay’s pre-hearing brief was tightly focused. Preliminarily, Ms. Barclay categorized her case as one presenting “an off-Table (cause-in-fact) significant aggravation claim.” Pet’r’s Prehr’g Br., filed Apr. 22, 2013, at 3. As informed by Dr. Corbier’s reports, Ms. Barclay presented the theory on which she was proceeding. He argued that the DTaP vaccine can cause the onset of seizures in children with an SCN1A mutation. He also argued that the outcome for Matthew was worse than it would have been otherwise because Matthew had a prolonged seizure and had status epilepticus. Id. at 10-15. 17 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 18 of 37 The Secretary responded in her pre-trial brief. The Secretary agreed that Ms. Barclay presented a claim that the DTaP vaccine significantly aggravated Matthew’s condition and, thus, she was required to fulfill the elements set forth in Loving v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 86 Fed. Cl. 135, 144 (2009). The Secretary also agreed that the evidence supported two aspects of Ms. Barclay’s proof --- first, “a DTaP vaccine is capable of causing a fever” and, second, “a fever is capable of provoking a seizure in a child with Dravet syndrome.” Resp’t’s Prehr’g Br., filed May 8, 2013, at 4-5. The Secretary, however, challenged other parts of Ms. Barclay’s case. The Secretary maintained that the “petitioner will be unable to produce reliable scientific evidence demonstrating Matthew’s initial, prolonged seizure caused any brain damage or caused him to suffer a worse developmental outcome.” Id. at 5. The Secretary’s arguments focused on three propositions: first, the genetic mutation alone caused Matthew’s developmental outcome; second, Matthew’s prolonged seizure did not cause his epilepsy; and, third, there is no persuasive evidence that Matthew’s initial seizure caused any lasting consequence. Id. at 5-8. The parties’ briefs accurately predicted the experts’ testimony at the hearing, which was held on June 5-6, 2013, in Charlotte, North Carolina. Drs. Corbier, Wiznitzer, and Raymond testified in accord with their expert reports. In the course of the hearing, the parties stipulated that all materials should be considered part of the record regardless of whether the particular article or report was in only either Matthew Ramirez’s case or Aydien Omidvar’s case. Tr. 27. At the end of the hearing, the parties requested an opportunity to submit briefs.16 Ms. Barclay filed an initial brief, the Secretary filed one brief, and then Ms. Barclay filed a reply. With the submission of the reply brief, the matter is ready for adjudication. 16 After the hearing, Ms. Barclay also filed a motion seeking an interim award of attorneys’ fees and costs. On February 2, 2014, she was awarded $133,942.46. Interim Fees Decision, 2014 WL 2925245. 18 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 19 of 37 V. Elements Required to Establish Entitlement to Compensation and Standards for Adjudication For petitioners to be awarded compensation, the special master must find that they established the “matters” listed in section 11(c)(1) and “there is not a preponderance of the evidence that the illness . . . is due to factors unrelated to the administration of the vaccine.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa—13(a)(1). Section 11(c)(1), in turn, lists five items in paragraphs (A) through (E). Here, the elements in controversy correspond to paragraphs C (causation / significant aggravation) and D (severity). Paragraph C requires some showing that the vaccine harmed the person. For certain vaccines and injuries, the Vaccine Act and its associated regulations establish a presumptive causal connection for injuries within a defined time. The injury may be either an initial injury or the significant aggravation of a preexisting injury. 42 U.S.C. § 300aa—11(c)(1)(C); 42 C.F.R. § 100.3. These claims are known as “Table claims.” For cases not based upon the Vaccine Injury Table, the petitioners are not entitled to a presumption that a vaccine caused an injury. Here, Ms. Barclay is pursuing an off-Table claim that the DTaP vaccine significantly aggravated her son’s Dravet syndrome. As confirmed in W.C. v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 704 F.3d 1352, 1357 (Fed. Cir. 2013), the elements of an off-Table significant aggravation case were stated in Loving. There, the Court blended the test from Althen v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 418 F.3d 1274, 1279 (Fed. Cir. 2005), which defines off-Table causation cases, with a test from Whitecotton v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 81 F.3d 1099, 1107 (Fed. Cir. 1996), which concerns on-Table significant aggravation cases. The resultant test has six components. These are: (1) the person's condition prior to administration of the vaccine, (2) the person's current condition (or the condition following the vaccination if that is also pertinent), (3) whether the person's current condition constitutes a “significant aggravation” of the person's condition prior to vaccination, (4) a medical theory causally connecting such a significantly worsened condition to the vaccination, (5) a logical sequence of cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the reason for the significant aggravation, and (6) a showing 19 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 20 of 37 of a proximate temporal relationship between the vaccination and the significant aggravation. Loving, 86 Fed. Cl. at 144. After Loving, the Federal Circuit has explained that possible alternative causes may be considered in determining whether petitioner has presented a persuasive claim. See Stone v. Secretary of Health & Human Servs., 676 F.3d 1373, 1380 (Fed. Cir. 2012). In context of an SCN1A case, the Federal Circuit held that the special master did not err in finding, after considering the entire record, that the “Secretary proved by preponderant evidence its ‘factors unrelated’ defense by showing that the gene mutations were the sole cause of the seizure disorders.” Snyder v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 553 F. App'x 994, 999 (Fed. Cir. 2014). If there is preponderant evidence that the vaccine caused some harm as set forth in paragraph C of section 11(c)(1), the petitioner must also establish that the harm was severe pursuant to paragraph D. The Vaccine Act lists three potential avenues, and the one requirement that Ms. Barclay could arguably fulfill is the vaccinee “suffered the residual effects or complications of such illness, disability, injury or condition for more than 6 months after the administration of the vaccine.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa—11(c)(1)(D)(i). Additional guidance about this element is set forth in section VII below. The burden of proof is preponderance of the evidence. The party bearing the burden of proof need not establish a proposition to the level of scientific certainty. Althen, 418 F.3d at 1278; Knudsen v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 35 F.3d 543, 549 (Fed. Cir. 1994). VI. Significant Aggravation A. Parties’ Positions To explain how a vaccine could change the effect of an SCN1A mutation, Dr. Corbier presented three overlapping theories in his testimony. A first idea is that people with an SCN1A mutation are vulnerable or susceptible to developing an adverse reaction to the DTaP vaccine. Tr. 20, 78, 103. A second theory is that vaccines cause Dravet syndrome to manifest earlier by bringing about seizures before they would have occurred otherwise. Tr. 30, 104, 140. For these two 20 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 21 of 37 theories, Dr. Corbier relied primarily upon material relating to SCN1A mutations. A third concept from Dr. Corbier is that the vaccines cause a more prolonged seizure and the prolonged seizure inflicts additional damage. Tr. 32, 144. For this theory, Dr. Corbier based much of his opinion upon HCN channels.17 Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer agreed only with the portion of Dr. Corbier’s presentation concerning the onset of the first seizure. Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer acknowledged that the vaccination preceded the first seizure and the vaccination, most likely, provoked a fever that triggered the first seizure. Tr. 256 (Dr. Raymond), 353 (Dr. Wiznitzer). Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer disagreed with the remaining portions of Dr. Corbier’s testimony. In their view, the SCN1A mutation is the sole cause of the developmental delay. Tr. 227, 254 (Dr. Raymond), 359, 416, 446 (Dr. Wiznitzer). Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer stated vaccines did not alter the ultimate outcome for Matthew. Tr. 254 (Dr. Raymond), 302 (Dr. Raymond discussing Matthew Ramirez), 359 (Dr. Wiznitzer), 454 (Dr. Wiznitzer discussing Matthew Ramirez). They provided several reasons for their opinions, including details about genetic mutation, rodent studies, and studies on people. B. Evidence regarding SCN1A Mutations 1. Genetic Mutation Dr. Raymond, the board-certified geneticist, stated practitioners look for details about the mutation, including the nature of the mutation, whether the mutation arose de novo, and whether the mutation is in a conserved region. Tr. 317. Here, Dr. Raymond discussed the details of Matthew’s mutation. Matthew has a 10 base pair deletion that arose de novo. Tr. 259. The mutation was in a conserved region. Tr. 317. Dr. Raymond’s opinion is supported by Athena. When Athena detected the genetic mutation, the laboratory correlated the mutation with a disease, not a 17 In the context of evaluating Dr. Corbier’s opinion Section IV.C. provides more information about HCN channels. 21 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 22 of 37 normal development. Exhibit 13B. Matthew’s gene was defective, creating incorrect wiring in his brain. Tr. 417 (Dr. Wiznitzer). 2. Rodent Studies As explained above, the rodent studies showed that mammals with a severe SCN1A mutation will have problems. Yu, in particular, showed that even without a fever, the mice will develop seizures. The seizures in the Yu experiment happened spontaneously and not in response to the introduction of an outside force. Yu at 1144. When Dr. Corbier was asked questions about this study, his answers were vague and confusing. See Tr. 536-41. Dr. Corbier seemingly did not appreciate that the Yu study contradicted his theory that an environmental factor (like a vaccine) affects the consequence of an SCN1A mutation. These two points provide a strong and reliable foundation for the opinions that genes are the sole cause of the Dravet syndrome and vaccinations do not contribute to developmental delay. But, more evidence buttresses these conclusions. Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer also cited various studies on people. 3. People Studies As more has become known about SCN1A mutations and seizures in mammals, scientists have investigated the connection between the mutation and epilepsy. In that research, the scientists have re-opened the question of whether vaccinations are causing epilepsy. The four important articles are by Berkovic, McIntosh, Tro-Baumann, and Brunklaus. a) Berkovic In 2006, Berkovic and colleagues were interested in explaining why pertussis vaccination has been alleged to cause an encephalopathy that involves seizures and intellectual impairment. The researchers postulated that in the cases of so-called vaccine encephalopathy, the individuals could have mutations in the SCN1A gene because of a clinical resemblance to SMEI for which such mutations have been identified. Berkovic et al. retrospectively studied 14 patients with an alleged encephalopathy in whom the first seizure occurred within 72 hours of vaccination. SCN1A mutations were identified in 11 of the 14 patients. Clinical- 22 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 23 of 37 molecular correlation showed mutations in eight of eight cases with phenotypes of SMEI, in three of four cases with borderline SMEI, but not in two cases with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome. The researchers concluded that cases of alleged vaccine encephalopathy could in fact be a genetically determined epileptic encephalopathy that arose de novo. Specifically, the researchers found, In the presence of SCN1A mutations, vaccination can still be argued to be a trigger for the encephalopathy, perhaps via fever or an immune mechanism. [B]ut the role of vaccination as a significant trigger for encephalopathy is unlikely for several reasons. First, although vaccination might trigger seizures as shown by the increased risk of febrile seizures on the day of triple antigen or MMR vaccination, there is no evidence of long-term adverse outcomes. Second, less than half of our patients had documented fever with their first seizure, which indicates that fever is not essential. Third, our neuroimaging data showed no evidence of an inflammatory or destructive process. Finally, truncation and missense mutations reported in conserved parts of SCN1A have not been found in many hundreds of healthy patients. Thus, individuals with such mutations seem to develop SMEI or SMEB whether or not they are immunized in the first year of life. We do not think that avoiding vaccination, as a potential trigger, would prevent onset of this devastating disorder in patients who already harbour the SCN1A mutation. Berkovic at 491. The Berkovic article has been influential. For example, the undersigned special master has previously found Dr. Raymond’s opinion that vaccinations do not cause Dravet syndrome persuasive because, in part, it was consistent with the scientific literature, specifically the Berkovic article. Snyder, 2011 WL 3022544, at *5. When the case reached the Federal Circuit, the Federal Circuit ruled that accepting Dr. Raymond’s opinion was not arbitrary because “the researchers of the Berkovic article did not believe that ‘avoiding vaccination, as a potential 23 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 24 of 37 trigger, would prevent onset of this devastating disorder in patients who already harbor the SCN1A mutation.’” Snyder, 553 Fed. Appx. at 1002. Other special masters have also found Berkovic to be a persuasive basis for finding that the child’s SCN1A gene mutation was the sole cause of the Dravet Syndrome. Barnette v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 06-868V, 2012 WL 5285414, at *11 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Sept. 26, 2012), mot. for rev. denied, 110 Fed. Cl. 34 (Fed. Cl. 2013); Deribeaux v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 05-306V, 2011 WL 6935504, at *34 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 9, 2011), mot. for rev. denied, 105 Fed. Cl. 583 (2012), aff’d, 717 F.3d 1363 (Fed. Cir. 2013); Stone v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 04-1041V, 2010 WL 1848220, at *34 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Apr. 15, 2010), mot. for rev. denied, 99 Fed. Cl. 187, 191 (Fed. Cl. 2011), aff'd, 676 F.3d 1373 (Fed. Cir. 2012). In addition to these legal determinations, the Berkovic article has inspired at least three other investigations about the potential link between vaccination and Dravet syndrome. b) McIntosh McIntosh and colleagues were interested in explaining why pertussis vaccination has been alleged to cause an encephalopathy that involves seizures and intellectual disability. In 2010, McIntosh and colleagues conducted a study in which they aimed to establish whether the apparent association of Dravet syndrome with vaccination was a result of recall bias and, if not, whether vaccination affected the onset or outcome of the disorder.18 The authors retrospectively studied 40 patients with Dravet syndrome, who had mutations in the SCN1A gene, and whose first seizure was a convulsion. McIntosh at 593-94. The authors examined medical and vaccination records to determine whether there was an association between vaccination and onset of seizures in these patients. Patients were separated into a vaccination-proximate group (seizure 0-1 day from vaccination) and vaccination-distant group (seizure 2+ days after vaccination), and the authors compared clinical features, intellectual outcome, and type of SCNIA mutation between the groups. Id. at 594. Twelve 18 Recall bias is a phenomenon in which people remember events incorrectly. The McIntosh researchers minimized recall bias by relying upon documents. McIntosh at 593. Dorland’s at 212. 24 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 25 of 37 patients were in the vaccination-proximate group and 28 patients were in the vaccination-distant group. Id. The authors found “no differences in intellectual outcome, subsequent seizure type, or mutation type between the two groups.” Id. at 592. The authors concluded that vaccination might trigger earlier onset of Dravet syndrome in children who, because of an SCN1A mutation, are destined to develop the disease. Id. However, the authors found “no evidence that vaccinations before or after disease onset affect[ed] outcome.” Id. Dr. Corbier interpreted McIntosh as establishing a definitive association between Dravet syndrome and vaccination. He also emphasized that seizures immediately after a vaccine were likely to occur at a younger age than seizures occurring more than two days after the vaccination. Tr. 23. Dr. Corbier explained that McIntosh did not find a recall bias. Further, Dr. Corbier disagreed with the McIntosh conclusion that the vaccinations did not affect outcome. Dr. Corbier contended that because the study was not designed to address outcomes, but rather to determine if there is a relationship at all, several variables were not included, and a proper conclusion cannot be drawn. Tr. 114. Dr. Raymond maintained that there was no statistically significant effect on outcome between the vaccination-proximate and vaccination-distant groups. Tr. 322. Dr. Wiznitzer opined that McIntosh suggests that children with Dravet syndrome who have an initial seizure in temporal proximity to a vaccination still have similar clinical outcomes to children whose initial seizures are not temporally related to vaccination. Tr. 404. Further, Dr. Wiznitzer explained that the only significant factor was that the age of onset was earlier for individuals who received vaccinations — but age of onset did not change the outcome. Tr. 407. c) Tro-Baumann In 2011, to gain a further understanding of the relationship between Dravet syndrome and vaccination, Blanca Tro-Baumann and colleagues conducted another retrospective analysis of 70 patients with Dravet syndrome and SCN1A mutations. Through examining medical records and conducting parental interviews, Tro- Baumann et al. found that seizures following vaccinations were reported in 27 percent of these patients. Tro-Baumann at 176. In 16 percent of the 70 patients 25 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 26 of 37 (that is, 58 percent of all patients with seizures following vaccination) the vaccination-related seizures represented the first clinical manifestation of the Dravet syndrome. Id. Two-thirds of the seizures following vaccination occurred in the context of fever. Id. The authors suggested that vaccination-related seizures represent a possible presenting feature of Dravet syndrome. Tro-Baumann at 177. Furthermore, the authors characterized an assumed causal connection between vaccine-related seizures and Dravet syndrome as a “misinterpretation.” Id. Dr. Corbier interpreted Tro-Baumann as establishing a “clear connection between Dravet and vaccination with DTP.” Tr. 22. When Dr. Corbier was questioned about what whether “connection” meant “causation,” his answer revealed the challenges in trying to say whether the vaccine affected the outcome. He stated: Well, it depends what we mean by causation. If causation means an inciting factor that in the right condition with the right associated factors can then lead to a disease, then causation fits. If we mean causation whereby the vaccine by itself would have caused the Dravet, then no. So when I use the term causation, what I mean is that the vaccine in a patient who's very vulnerable because of an underlying genetic mutation, there's a whole series of reactions that occur due to that initial vaccine, or it can be a fever or a virus that then changes brain function and circuitry that will result in long-term epilepsy. Tr. 196. Moreover, Dr. Corbier contended that the article suggests that vaccines can cause Dravet Syndrome to “occur earlier.” Tr. 30. On cross-examination, Dr. Corbier repeated that “vaccine-related seizures . . . represent a possible presenting feature” of Dravet syndrome. Tr. 121. When pressed to explain whether the vaccine-related seizures were the cause of the Dravet syndrome, Dr. Corbier stated the Tro-Baumann article showed “that we cannot ignore the role of vaccine in being a presenting feature in many patients with Dravet syndrome, so vaccination, 26 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 27 of 37 with or without fever, plays an important role as a presenting feature in many patients with Dravet.” Tr. 122. When Dr. Wiznitzer was questioned about Tro-Baumann, he opined that vaccination is associated with the onset of Dravet syndrome only so far as the vaccination causes temperature elevation, and temperature elevation, regardless of source, can cause seizures. Tr. 398. Dr. Wiznitzer maintained that the relationship is not a significant aggravation or a causal connection. Tr. 401. Dr. Raymond did not comment on Tro-Baumann beyond noting that it did not study differences in outcomes. Tr. 333. d) Brunklaus In 2012, Brunklaus and colleagues examined a large cohort of patients with SCN1A mutation-positive Dravet syndrome. They intended to identify predictors of developmental outcome and to determine specific clinical and demographic features. During a 5-year study of 355 patients, Brunklaus et al. collected information about several aspects of Dravet syndrome, including epilepsy phenotype, electroencephalography data, imaging studies, and mutation class. Id. at 2329. They also rated each child’s developmental status. The developmental status was classified by the referring clinician using a five-point scale. The raters had expertise in the assessment of developmental status including rating of gross and fine motor skills, communication and cognitive abilities, and age appropriate adaptive behavior. Id. at 2330. The authors found that clinical features predicting a worse developmental outcome included status epilepticus, interictal electroencephalography abnormalities in the first year of life, and motor disorder. Id. at 2329. No significant effect was seen for seizure precipitants, magnetic resonance imaging abnormalities, or mutation class. Id. Brunklaus also investigated the precipitants of seizures. The authors found that fever or illness had precipitated the majority of seizures, one-third had no precipitant, and vaccination triggered 7 percent of the seizures. Brunklaus at 2333. Moreover, the authors found that vaccination-triggered seizures presented significantly earlier than those without precipitant or with fever/illness. Id. at 2333-34. However, citing McIntosh, the authors concluded that the vaccination itself had no effect on the developmental outcome. Id. at 2334. 27 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 28 of 37 Further, the authors contend that “children carrying a SCN1A mutation are destined to develop the disease, which in turn can be precipitated by a series of factors such as fever/illness, vaccination or a bath.” Id. However, the nature of the trigger has no effect on overall developmental outcome. Id. The authors acknowledged that their understanding of the functional effect of mutations is still unrefined, and classification models lack accuracy to reflect the true mutation impact. Id. at 2335. Dr. Corbier interpreted the study as establishing a definitive link between vaccination and the onset of Dravet syndrome and seizures. Tr. 25. Specifically, Dr. Corbier emphasized that the study indicated that children who suffered the onset of seizures associated with a vaccination suffered the onset of seizures at a significantly earlier time. Tr. 26. Moreover, Dr. Corbier explained that the Brunklaus article found that children who had status epilepticus have a worse developmental outcome. Tr. 54. Dr. Raymond interpreted the Brunklaus study as finding that vaccination itself does not affect developmental outcome. Tr. 331. However, Dr. Raymond acknowledges that the Brunklaus study did not present their data in the published article. Tr. 332. Dr. Wiznitzer explained that the Brunklaus study clearly states that the authors looked at their data and found that vaccination does not alter developmental outcome, a finding that confirmed the conclusion reached in McIntosh. Tr. 406. Dr. Wiznitzer asserted that this was an independent finding by the Brunklaus authors and was not simply a reiteration of the McIntosh finding. Tr. 405. Furthermore, on cross-examination, Dr. Wiznitzer acknowledged that the Brunklaus study found that the mutation class did not predict a worse outcome, and one of the mutation classes listed was a frame shift mutation. Tr. 450. 4. Assessment When Dr. Corbier testified in rebuttal, he recognized that Matthew Ramirez’s 10 base pair mutation was severe and “explains a lot of things.” Tr. 501. But, Dr. Corbier maintained the genetic mutation does not explain everything. The mutation, in Dr. Corbier’s view, made Matthew Ramirez “more susceptible to environmental insults.” Id. 28 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 29 of 37 An opinion that a 10 base pair mutation explains almost everything, leaving room for an environmental factor is not persuasive. As Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer thoroughly discussed, the nature of the genetic mutation in these children makes the creation of a normally functioning sodium channel in the brain impossible. Without an effective Na 1.1, controlling the flow of sodium ions in v the brain is impaired. The occurrence of seizures is inevitable. Dr. Corbier did not rebut Dr. Raymond’s assessment that the genetic mutation was severe. Similarly, Dr. Corbier did not answer Dr. Wiznitzer’s assertion that the problem was defective wiring. Thus, there is no reliable basis for crediting Dr. Corbier’s first theory that people with an SCN1A mutation are vulnerable to developing an adverse reaction to the DTaP vaccine. Similarly, there is no reliable basis for crediting Dr. Corbier’s second theory that vaccines worsen Dravet syndrome by bringing about seizures before they would have occurred otherwise. Tr. 30, 104, 140. Although there may be an earlier manifestation, Dr. Corbier has not demonstrated how it affects the child’s outcome. Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer rested their opinion on Berkovic, McIntosh, and Brunklaus. Dr. Corbier, on the other hand, had no support for his opinions that the vaccines change the outcome. These studies showed that children with SCN1A mutations have consistent symptoms, regardless of whether the initial seizure followed a seizure. C. Analogy to HCN channels To support the theory that “seizures beget seizures,” Dr. Corbier relies upon articles by McClelland, Dube, Bender, Brewster, Chen, and Jung, and also testified about them individually. Tr. 32-48.19 Some of these articles present results of experiments and some of these articles are review articles that summarize experiments conducted elsewhere. In the articles that reported the results of an experiment, the researchers were generally exploring a hypothesis that febrile seizures lead to long-term epilepsy because the febrile seizures damage an HCN channel. See Tr. 552. 19 Dr. Corbier appeared to know relatively less about HCN channels than the Secretary’s experts. For example, Dr. Corbier did not know whether a test could detect defects in HCN channels and he did not know how a defect in an HCN channel would be observable in a clinical setting. Tr. 138. 29 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 30 of 37 The HCN channels are located in the hippocampal region. Tr. 132, 382 (Dr. Wiznitzer’s discussion of 2001 Chen). HCN channels are ion channels, which allow substances such as sodium and potassium to enter and to exit the cell membrane. Tr. 363. The purpose of HCN channels is to balance and polarize the cell to limit the cell’s excitability. Tr. 364. After a summary about each article, Dr. Corbier was asked about their combined teaching. He stated: I think taken collectively, these articles show that we have an explanation for prolonged febrile seizures causing permanent changes, permanent epileptic changes in a brain that may start out normal, for example, Dravet patients. We know that before six months, before they start having seizures, they appear normal. They don't have seizures. They have a prolonged febrile event or a prolonged febrile seizure. Something changes. They develop epilepsy, so this can explain why and how a prolonged febrile seizure vis-a-vis these HCN channels can result in these long-term changes. Tr. 50. Dr. Corbier also opined about these studies’ relevance: They're relevant because we have to have a mechanism, we have to have an explanation to show why. Even if you have an important mutation such as SCN1A mutation, the changes from a SCN1A mutation that lead to refractory epilepsy do not occur in a vacuum. There needs to be an explanation from going from no seizures to very refractory seizures unresponsive to medication. Tr. 51. Dr. Corbier’s logic is flawed in many respects. First, he states that something alters “a brain that may start out normal, for example, Dravet patients.” Tr. 50. It is not correct to say that these children’s brains “start[ed] out normal.” Dr. Corbier recognized that “these kids probably come into the world with that SCN1A mutation.” Tr. 41. Although Dr. Corbier qualified his answer by using 30 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 31 of 37 the term “probably,” he later agreed that Matthew was born with the SCN1A mutation. Tr. 94-95. The second error in Dr. Corbier’s assessment relates to the first. Dr. Corbier asserted that “the changes from a SCN1A mutation that lead to refractory epilepsy do not occur in a vacuum.” Tr. 51. There is not a vacuum. The seizures and attendant developmental delays begin after the switch from Na 1.3 to Na 1.1. See v v Brewster at 4597; Tr. 137. Third, HCN channels are not sodium channels. Tr. 363 (Dr. Wiznitzer). HCN channels regulate the excitability and inhabitability in the cell. Tr. 364. HCN channels involve not only sodium ions, which cause the cell to be hyperpolarized, but also involve potassium ions. Id. “The HCN channel is not the same thing as an SCN1A channel. It’s built differently. It has different components. It has different genes. It probably has different transcriptional regulation.” Tr. 470. When Dr. Corbier was asked to comment upon the similarities and differences as part of his rebuttal testimony, he did not address the question very well, beginning his answer “I don’t claim to be an expert in channelopathies.” Tr. 524. Dr. Corbier’s non-answer left unrebutted Dr. Wiznitzer’s assertion that “You’re dealing with two different creatures here. So I think you can’t take the leap from one to the other.” Tr. 471. Fourth, the consequence of a problem in an HCN channel may be temporal lobe epilepsy.20 But temporal lobe epilepsy is not the same as Dravet syndrome. Tr. 367-68, 372, 385; see also Tr. 498-99 (movement disorders seen in Dravet syndrome do not originate in the hippocampal region). D. Synopsis All these reasons contribute to a finding that Dr. Corbier was not persuasive in his opinion that vaccinations affected Matthew’s outcome. The flip side of this coin is that Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer were persuasive in opining that the SCN1A mutation was the sole cause. Consequently, Ms. Barclay has failed to 20 The text uses the conditional terminology “may be” because the connection between HCN channels and temporal lobe epilepsy is not established. Tr. 516-19 (Dr. Corbier’s discussion of Bender), 526-27 (Dr. Corbier’s discussion of FEBSTAT study). 31 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 32 of 37 establish the first prong of Althen and the Secretary has established an alternative factor. Although this resolution means that Ms. Barclay cannot be awarded compensation, there is a second aspect to her case. Whether Matthew suffered a severe injury due to the vaccine is discussed below. VII. Severity of Injury A. Legal Principles Another way of evaluating an alleged effect of vaccination on Matthew is to consider how he would be if he had not received a vaccination. In a variety of contexts, the Federal Circuit has held that the person claiming compensation for another’s injury must establish a “but for” model. E.g. Nycal Offshore Dev. Corp. v. United States, 743 F.3d 837, 844 (Fed. Cir. 2014) (oil and gas leases); Kellogg Brown & Root Servs., Inc. v. United States, 728 F.3d 1348, 1371 (Fed. Cir. 2013) (government counterclaim pursuant to anti-kick back act), reh’g denied, 2014 WL 1284763 (Fed. Cir. March 28, 2014). Consistent with common law principles, the Federal Circuit has also held that petitioners in the Vaccine Program have the burden to show “but for” the vaccine, they would not have suffered an injury. Shyface v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 165 F.3d 1344, 1352 (Fed. Cir. 1999). Pursuant to the Vaccine Act, the injury suffered must be severe, such as lasting more than six months. 42 U.S.C. § 300aa—11(c)(1)(D). In the context of a cause of action alleging a vaccine caused a discrete injury, the “but for” world is readily identified. Petitioners maintain that but for a vaccine, they would not have suffered any injury. However, Ms. Barclay in the case at hand is not proceeding on an initial-onset claim. She is instead pursuing a cause of action that the vaccines significantly aggravated Matthew’s underlying disorder. In significant aggravation cases, constructing a hypothetical scenario without the vaccination is more challenging. Because the physiologic basis for the disease existed before vaccination, petitioners must present some persuasive evidence about the natural or expected course of the disease. From this benchmark, petitioners should show their outcome is worse than what would normally occur. Locane v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 99 Fed. Cl. 715, 731-32 (2011), aff’d, 685 F.3d 1375 (Fed. Cir. 2012); Loving v. Sec'y of Health & Human 32 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 33 of 37 Servs., No. 02-469V, 2009 WL 3094883, at *11-12 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July 30, 2009), clarified on denial of reconsideration, 2010 WL 1076124 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. March 2, 2010). In the cases involving an SCN1A mutation, the petitioners’ inability to explain how the children would have fared without the vaccination was one reason the petitioners were not compensated. Harris, 2011 WL 2446321 at *33; Snyder, 2011 WL 3022544, at *34. The Federal Circuit specifically ruled that these findings were not arbitrary and capricious. Snyder, 553 Fed. Appx. at 999, 1003; cf. Deribeaux, 717 F.3d at 1369 (ruling the special master was not arbitrary in finding the SCN1A mutation to be the sole cause of the child’s injuries). B. Assessment of Evidence For the case at hand, Ms. Barclay’s proof again falters. She has failed to establish Matthew would be different today if he had not received the DTaP vaccination. She has not demonstrated any sequela to his initial seizure after which he returned to his baseline. Ms. Barclay also has not established any change in outcome. All experts agree that there is a causal relationship between the vaccinations and the initial seizure. More specifically, the DTaP vaccine prompted a fever and fever, in children with an SCN1A mutation, can prompt a seizure. The Secretary’s experts conceded this point without dispute. Tr. 320 (Dr. Raymond), 448 (Dr. Wiznitzer).21 A fever and an associated seizure, however, do not meet the Vaccine Act’s severity requirement. Following the seizures, Matthew remained in the hospital for less than four days. Exhibit 5 at 13. He underwent various tests including an EEG and an MRI. The results of these tests were normal. Exhibit 5 at 21-22, exhibit 6 at 23. Upon discharge, Matthew was said to be in good condition. Exhibit 5 at 18; see also Tr. 144, 423, 427, 437. Consequently, Ms. Barclay cannot receive compensation for just the initial fever and initial seizure. Therefore, Ms. Barclay must look to Matthew’s outcome after the initial presentation. 21 It is possible that Matthew Ramirez was suffering from pneumonia before his vaccination and the pneumonia caused the fever that led to the seizure. For simplicity, this decision is assuming that he did not have pneumonia before the vaccination. 33 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 34 of 37 Ms. Barclay has not demonstrated Matthew would have been worse. Dr. Corbier, on cross-examination, was asked if Matthew Ramirez did not have his initial seizure, how would he be today? Dr. Corbier responded: “the simple answer is I don’t know.” He elaborated: “I can take an educated guess that if he did have seizures, it would have occurred later on.” Tr. 104. In the subsequent discussion, Dr. Corbier suggested that Matthew Ramirez may not have had any seizures. When questioned about the basis for this possibility, Dr. Corbier answered: Is it possible that he could go without seizure despite the fact that he has an SCN1A mutation disease producing type of mutation? The answer is maybe. I can’t say for sure. I don’t have any evidence to back me up, but I don’t see why not. . . . [B]ut if we’re able to control all of the potential triggers, could we be left without a seizure disorder? Perhaps. Tr. 107-08. Because Dr. Corbier’s answer suggested that triggers were not needed, he was asked more questions about this point. Dr. Corbier stated “this is a question, the answer of which I don’t know based on not seeing any particular study designed to address that particular question. [B]ut at least hypothetically, you know, I don’t see why not.” Tr. 109. Later, Dr. Corbier was again asked to differentiate Matthew from what happens in Dravet syndrome generally. But, Dr. Corbier did not provide any meaningful information. Tr. 142-43. Because Dr. Corbier did not explain his opinion regarding the difference between a hypothetical Matthew Ramirez (who did not receive the vaccination) and the real Matthew Ramirez (who did receive the vaccination), Dr. Corbier was asked about this topic again. But, once more, he could say only that the seizures occurred earlier. He could not say that the earlier onset affected his longer term outcome. Tr. 185-91. These vague responses largely undermined the value of Dr. Corbier’s earlier testimony, on direct examination, that the children at issue in the consolidated cases were worse after the vaccination. Tr. 19-20 (Matthew Ramirez), 77 (Aydien). In the sense that the children had seizures, they were worse. But this 34 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 35 of 37 conclusion is too facile. It ignores the role the mutation plays and the natural course of Dravet syndrome. The opinions from Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer that the mutation determined the children’s outcome were much more persuasive. In their view, the vaccinations did not affect the Dravet syndrome. Tr. 263 (Dr. Raymond on Matthew Ramirez), 270 (Dr. Raymond on Aydien), 319 (Dr. Raymond on Aydien), 423 (Dr. Wiznitzer on Matthew), 454 (Dr. Wiznitzer on both). Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer based their opinions that the gene caused the developmental delay on biology. As explained above, neither child can produce a normally functioning Na 1.1. v The medical literature also supports the opinion that vaccinations did not affect the outcome. Tr. 302-06 (Dr. Raymond citing McIntosh), 439 (Dr. Wiznitzer citing McIntosh, Brunklaus, and Ragona). For example, Brunklaus and colleagues studied more than 300 cases with an SCN1A mutation. They attempted to determine whether different variables accounted for the range of developmental outcomes in patients with Dravet syndrome. The authors concluded that their finding “supports the argument that children carrying a SCN1A mutation are destined to develop the disease, which in turn can be precipitated by a series of factors such as fever/illness, vaccination or a bath. However, the nature of the trigger has no effect on overall developmental outcome and thus does not seem to be responsible for the subsequent encephalopathy.” Brunklaus at 2334. In addition to their own data, Brunklaus and colleagues cited the articles by Tro- Baumann, Berkovic and McIntosh. When asked about this passage from the Brunklaus article, Dr. Corbier said “I don’t see proof.” Dr. Corbier’s assessment of Brunklaus is not credible. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly demonstrated that Matthew Ramirez would be the same even if he did not receive the vaccine. The vaccination did not affect or contribute to his developmental delay. Ms. Barclay has failed to meet her burden of establishing, by preponderant evidence, that he suffered an injury for more than six months. VIII. Additional Comments The results in the case at bar match the results in previous cases involving an SCN1A mutation. The identical outcome is not surprising because human biology has not changed. The SCN1A genes still largely control the creation of Na 1.1. v 35 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 36 of 37 Furthermore, the evidence is largely the same. Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer testified in previous cases. They cited to the same articles, such as Oakley and Yu. The newer articles such as Brunklaus reinforce the opinions of Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer. Potential petitioners who intend to claim a vaccine injured a child with an SCN1A mutation should consider carefully whether there is a reasonable basis for their claims. Special masters have consistently credited evidence that the gene is the sole cause of developmental problems.22 An expert’s opinion that a vaccine can trigger an initial seizure in a child with an SCN1A mutation has been insufficient to demonstrate that the vaccine caused a subsequent seizure disorder in such a child, at least in the absence of evidence regarding a difference in the ultimate outcome. Against this backdrop, future claims involving an SCN1A mutation may lack a reasonable basis. IX. Conclusion Dravet syndrome has interfered with Matthew’s development since its manifestation following the March 25, 2005 DTaP vaccination. The timing of events (in that Matthew experienced his first seizure within one day of the vaccination) understandably led to a hypothesis that the vaccination contributed to the Dravet syndrome. However, scientific research, as Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer ably explained, has shown that a genetic mutation caused Matthew’s Dravet syndrome. It is more likely than not that Matthew would be the same today whether he received the vaccination or not. Ms. Barclay has failed to demonstrate that she is entitled to compensation from the Vaccine Program. Consequently, the Clerk’s Office is instructed to enter judgment in accord with this decision. 22 The list of final opinions in other SCN1A cases includes: Snyder, 553 Fed. Appx. 994; Deribeaux, 717 F.3d 1363; Stone, 676 F.3d 1373; Barnette v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 110 Fed. Cl. 34 (2013); and Waters v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 08-76V, 2014 WL 300936 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Jan. 7, 2014). 36 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 129 Filed 02/18/15 Page 37 of 37 IT IS SO ORDERED. s/ Christian J. Moran Christian J. Moran Special Master 37 ================================================================================ DOCUMENT 2: USCOURTS-cofc-1_07-vv-00605-2 Date issued/filed: 2015-07-10 Pages: 17 Docket text: JUDGE VACCINE REPORTED OPINION re: Motion for Review Signed by Senior Judge Eric G. Bruggink. (md) Copy to parties. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 1 of 17 In the United States Court of Federal Claims No. 07-605V (Originally Filed: June 15, 2015) (Reissued: July 10, 2015) * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * NANCY BARCLAY, as the legal representative of her minor son, MATTHEW RAMIREZ, Vaccine case; petitioner’s challenge to the Special Petitioner, Master’s decision; significant aggravation; v. DTaP vaccine; Dravet syndrome; SCN1A SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND mutation. HUMAN SERVICES, Respondent. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Curtis R. Webb, Twin Falls, ID for petitioner. Voris E. Johnson, Jr., Assistant Director in the Torts Branch of the Civil Division, Department of Justice, Washington, DC, with whom are, Joyce R. Branda, Acting Assistant Attorney General, Rupa Bhattacharyya, Director, Vincent J. Matanoski, Deputy Director, and Catharine E. Reeves, Assistant Director, for respondent. _______________ OPINION1 _______________ 1 Publication of this opinion was deferred pending the parties’ review for redaction of protected information. See Rules of the Court of Federal Claims (“RCFC”), App. B, Rule 18(b). Neither party submitted proposed redactions, although the court made other minor editorial changes. The opinion is now prepared for release. Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 2 of 17 BRUGGINK, Judge. On August 14, 2007, petitioner, Nancy Barclay, filed a petition for compensation under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, 42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to-34 (2012) (“Vaccine Act”), on behalf of her minor son, Matthew Ramirez. The petition alleges that the diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (“DTaP”) vaccination caused Matthew to develop Dravet syndrome.2 Progress on this case was stayed pending the resolution of a series of cases which relied on the same theory of causation. See Barnette v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 06-868V, 2012 WL 5285414 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Sept. 26, 2012) (denying compensation); Snyder v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07- 59V, 2011 WL 3022544 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 27, 2011) (denying compensation); Harris v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07-60V, 2011 WL 2446321 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 27, 2011) (denying compensation); Hammitt v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07-170V, 2011 WL 1135878 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar. 4, 2011) (denying compensation); Stone v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 04-1041V, 2011 WL 836992 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Jan. 20, 2011) (denying compensation).3 Once it became clear that respondent had proven that a genetic factor unrelated to the vaccination was the cause of Dravet syndrome in those cases, Ms. Barclay was permitted to amend her theory of liability. Petitioner asserts that DTaP vaccine significantly aggravated Matthew’s Dravet syndrome by provoking an earlier onset and by causing additional damage to Matthew’s brain. Ms. Barclay argues that but for the vaccination, Matthew would have experienced less developmental delay. Petitioner presented her case to the Special Master in June of 2013. After conducting a hearing, reviewing the evidence, weighing the testimony provided by the experts, and considering post-hearing briefs, the Special Master concluded that petitioner failed to establish a persuasive theory of causation, held that respondent proved a defense, and denied petitioner’s request for compensation. See Barclay v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07-605V, 2014 WL 7891493 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 15, 2014) (hereinafter “Decision”). 2 Dravet syndrome is also referred to as SMEI, which stands for severe myoclonic epilepsy in infancy. This condition is characterized by unmanageable epilepsy and developmental regression. See Stone v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 676 F.3d 1373, 1375 n.1 (Fed. Cir. 2012). 3 See footnote 10 for precedent affirming these decisions. 2 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 3 of 17 Currently before the court is petitioner’s motion for review of the Special Master’s ruling of December 15, 2014, denying compensation. We have jurisdiction pursuant to 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12. In our review, we apply the standard articulated in 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12(e) and will only set aside the special master’s findings of fact or conclusions of law that were “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12(e)(2); see Paluck v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 2014-5080, 2015 WL 2403354 (Fed. Cir. May 20, 2015) (precedential); see also Lampe v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 219 F.3d 1357, 1360 (Fed. Cir. 2000) ((holding that special masters have discretion to weigh the evidence and “reversible error is ‘extremely difficult to demonstrate’” unless the special master has failed to consider the relevant evidence of record, drawn implausible inferences or failed to articulate a rational basis for the decision) (quoting Hines v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 940 F.2d 1518, 1528 (Fed. Cir. 1999))). The matter is fully briefed and we heard oral argument on May 7, 2015. For the reasons explained below, we deny petitioner’s motion for review. BACKGROUND4 Matthew was born on November 16, 2004. Although he appeared normal and healthy, Matthew was born with a genetic mutation.5 Specifically, there was a frameshift mutation in his SCN1A gene caused by the “deletion of 10 base pairs at nucleotide position 3867-3876 / codon position 1289-1292.” Decision at *5 n.9. Without the missing base pairs, Matthew lacks the necessary genetic material to support proper neurological function. In a healthy person, the SCN1A gene supplies the genetic code which is used by the body to create Na 1.1 sodium channels.6 Sodium channels are v 4 The background facts are derived from the Decision and are not in dispute. The page numbers used in citations to the Decision refer to the pagination provided by Westlaw. 5 The precise mutation that afflicts Matthew was revealed through genetic testing in 2009. 6 For more information on transcription and translation, which are the processes by which the body eventually produces the proteins proscribed by (continued...) 3 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 4 of 17 integral to neurological function because they regulate electrical excitability. Specifically, sodium channels transmit electrical signals throughout cells and cell networks to achieve functions such as movement or thought. The transmission is achieved when the membrane of a sodium channel becomes depolarized because it increases permeability to sodium ions and thereby permits the flow of these ions. Once the need for the excitability concludes, permeability decreases and the sodium channel closes. Within the infant’s brain, sodium channels evolve in the first six months of life. At birth, the human body relies on the Na 1.3 sodium channel instead v of the Na 1.1 channel. Around three months of age, there is a natural v transition to reliance on the Na 1.1 sodium channel. The Na 1.1 sodium v v channel functions to maintain a neurological balance in the brain and dysfunction in this channel can lead to seizures. Because Matthew’s body was not yet utilizing the Na 1.1 sodium v channel, Matthew was asymptomatic during his early development. He had well-baby visits on November 30, 2004, January 21, 2005, and March 25, 2005, during which his pediatrician noted nothing out of the ordinary. During the March 25, 2005 well-baby checkup, Matthew received a set of vaccinations, which included a second dose of the DTaP vaccine. Later that night, Matthew developed a fever and, in response, Matthew’s mother gave him infant Motrin. Around 6:00 a.m. on the morning of March 26, Matthew had a seizure lasting about 20 minutes. Matthew lost consciousness during the seizure, prompting his parents to bring him to the hospital. Upon arriving at the local emergency room, Matthew was still seizing and remained feverish. The doctor administered Versed, and the seizure abated within a minute. Matthew’s seizure lasted approximately 45 minutes. While Matthew was in the hospital, the doctors ordered a series of tests including an electroencephalogram (“EEG”), a computerized tomography (“CT”) scan of his brain, magnetic resonance imaging (“MRI”), and X-rays. The EEG and CT scan were normal, and the MRI was essentially normal. The X-ray, however, revealed infiltrate in both lungs. The doctors concluded that Matthew had pneumonia, and his final diagnosis was stated to be febrile seizures due to pneumonia. On March 29, 2005, after being hospitalized for 6(...continued) the DNA, see Decision at *3-4. 4 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 5 of 17 four days, Matthew was discharged with a course of antibiotics to treat the pneumonia. Matthew experienced another seizure on April 15, 2005, although this episode was not provoked by a fever or other identifiable trigger. Shortly after this episode, Matthew had an EEG which “indicated that Matthew had some slowing in the background and was interpreted as abnormal.” Decision at *7. After Matthew suffered another unprovoked seizure on April 25, 2005, he fit the criteria for being epileptic. Matthew continues to suffer from epilepsy. The Special Master summarized Matthew’s condition as follows: “Since he started having seizures, Matthew has not developed normally. Various anticonvulsant medicines have not controlled his seizures. He experiences approximately ten seizures each month. He speaks sentences that are three or four words in length. He can walk but has difficulty catching a ball.” Id. In 2009, Matthew underwent genetic testing to explore the cause of his epilepsy. The genetic testing report issued by Athena Diagnostic, Inc. stated, “This individual possesses a DNA sequence variant that is either a previously reported disease-associated mutation or is predicted to be a disease-associated mutation. This test result is consistent with a diagnosis of, or a predisposition to develop, SMEI or SMEB, the severe phenotypes associated with SCN1A mutations.” Id. at * 5 (quotation and citation omitted). Upon receiving these test results, Matthew’s treating physicians diagnosed him as suffering from Dravet syndrome. The presentation of Dravet syndrome includes onset of seizures sometime between four and eight months of age. These initial seizures are typically clonic or hemi-clonic and last for over five minutes or occur multiple times in a five-minute period. “In the second or third year of life, the seizures evolve into different types of seizures including myoclonic seizures, absence seizures, and complex partial seizures. Although the initial development is normal, by the time the child becomes a toddler, his or her development stagnates.” Id. at *4. The severity of Dravet syndrome occurs along a spectrum with some children experiencing milder outcomes than others. There are subtypes of Dravet syndrome that serve to categorize presentations within the spectrum. These subtypes include “generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures (GEFS), severe myoclonic epilepsy borderline (SMEB), and severe myoclonic epilepsy in infancy (SMEI).” Id. As discussed below, the location 5 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 6 of 17 and nature of the genetic mutation may be indicative of the child’s outcome along the spectrum. After the test results revealed that Matthew had a severe mutation to his SCN1A gene, his parents were also tested in order to determine if the mutation was hereditary. If one or both of Matthew’s parents had a similar mutation that would suggest a more hopeful prognosis for Matthew; the assumption is that the parent with the mutation has developed normally enough to function and reproduce. For example, there are some SCN1A mutations that are associated with conditions such as migraines. These more benign mutations could be inherited. The test results showed that neither of Matthew’s parents had a SCN1A gene abnormality. The alternative to an inherited abnormality is a genetic mutation that occurred spontaneously and for the first time, de novo, in Matthew’s development. While a de novo mutation does not automatically mean a severe outcome, it is not as promising as a hereditary mutation. Another indicator that the outcome might be severe is location on a conserved region of DNA. A conserved region is one that is preserved through evolution in many species, which suggests that changes in these sequences of DNA are not easily tolerated. Some mutations that occur in conserved regions are not consistent with life. The type of genetic mutation also impacts outcome. While some types of mutations are harmless, such as when one amino acid is substituted for a similar amino acid, other types, such as frame shift mutations in which base pairs are missing and the DNA sequence shifts in their absence, might be predictive of worse outcomes. DISCUSSION To receive compensation for a vaccine related injury, petitioner bears the burden of proving by a preponderance of the evidence the elements of his or her petition, which are listed in 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1). 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-13(a)(1)(A). In a non-table7 significant aggravation claim, petitioner 7 See 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-14(a) (injury table); W.C. v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 704 F.3d 1352, 1356 (Fed. Cir. 2013) (explaining that “[i]n a (continued...) 6 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 7 of 17 must prove that he or she “had significantly aggravated any illness, disability, injury, or condition not set forth in the Vaccine Injury Table but which was caused by a vaccine.” § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii)(I). “Significant aggravation” is defined in § 300aa-33(4) as “any change for the worse in a preexisting condition which results in a markedly greater disability, pain, or illness accompanied by a substantial deterioration of health.” A critical step in petitioner proving her case is showing that the vaccine caused the significant aggravation. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in W.C. v. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 704 F.3d at 1357, endorsed the factors for establishing causation in a significant aggravation case set forth in Loving v. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 86 Fed. Cl. 135 (2009). The Loving case suggests an examination of the following factors: (1) the person’s condition prior to administration of the vaccine, (2) the person’s current condition (or the condition following the vaccination if that is also pertinent), (3) whether the person’s current condition constitutes a “significant aggravation” of the person’s condition prior to vaccination, (4) a medical theory casually connecting such a significantly worsened condition to the vaccination, (5) a logical sequence of cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the reason for the significant aggravation, and (6) . . . a proximate temporal relationship between the vaccination and the significant aggravation. 86 Fed. Cl. at 144.8 Additionally, petitioner must show that “the residual effects or complications of such illness, disability, injury, or condition” 7(...continued) table claim, the petitioner benefits from a statutory presumption of causation upon showing that the injury is listed in the Vaccine Injury Table for the vaccine received and occurred within the time period in the table” but that “[i]f the injury is not listed in the table, the petitioner must prove actual causation by a preponderance of the evidence”). 8 The Loving standard combines the traditional causation factors outlined in Althen v. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 418 F.3d 1274, 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005), with three additional factors for establishing an off- table significant aggravation claim derived from Whitecotton v. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 81 F.3d 1099, 1107 (Fed. Cir. 1996). 7 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 8 of 17 continued “for more than 6 months after the administration of the vaccine.” § 300aa-11(c)(1)(D)(i). If petitioner proves these factors, she has established a prima facie case for compensation. At any point, whether it is before or after petitioner has established her prima facie case, the Special Master may consider whether a factor unrelated to the vaccine was the cause of the injury. Stone, 676 F.3d at 1379-80. The Secretary bears the burden of proving the “factors unrelated” defense, which requires a showing “also by a preponderance of evidence, that the injury was in fact caused by factors unrelated to the vaccine.” Knudsen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 35 F.3d 543, 547 (Fed. Cir. 1994) (citation and quotation omitted). The anomaly in using this approach here, however, is that Matthew had a preexisting condition which had not manifested itself prior to the vaccination. Asking the question, “what was Matthew’s condition prior to the vaccination?” therefore, requires addressing the issue of his genetic abnormality. Does the fact that the abnormality had not manifested and was therefore unknown mean that his condition prior to vaccination was that of a normal, healthy child? The result of the before and after comparison posed by questions one and two in the Loving analysis is different depending on whether or how the genetic abnormality is taken into account. Petitioner does not contend that the vaccine caused the Dravet syndrome. In other words, she concedes that Matthew’s “before” condition is that of a child with a genetic abnormality, which, as we consider below, means that he will develop one of the severe disease types associated with SCN1A mutations. She contends, however, that the vaccination triggered the earlier onset of the manifestations of Dravet and that those symptoms were, on a continuing basis, more serious than they otherwise would have been. Further complicating the application of the Loving factors, however, is that it is undisputed that the vaccine caused the fever which preceded the seizure on the day of vaccination. There is thus no question that Matthew’s condition immediately prior to vaccination was that he was free of fever and seizures, and that after the vaccination he had a fever (briefly), but continued to have seizures. Under these circumstances, determining whether or not the causation test is met depends on how the question is framed. Is it sufficient that there is a connection between the vaccination and the first seizure, or must the first seizure have had an impact on Matthew’s ultimate prognosis? What specific condition must have persisted at least six months to establish 8 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 9 of 17 causation, and what must petitioner prove, if anything, with respect to whether the genetic abnormality alone explains the ongoing seizures? I. Before the Special Master A. The Parties’ Arguments and Experts Before the Special Master, petitioner presented three overlapping theories of causation. First, that individuals “with an SCN1A mutation are vulnerable or susceptible to developing an adverse reaction to the DTaP vaccine.” Decision at *12. Second, that “vaccines cause Dravet syndrome to manifest earlier by bringing about seizures before they would have occurred otherwise.” Id. Third, that “vaccines cause a more prolonged seizure and the prolonged seizure inflicts additional damage.” Id. In order to establish its prima facie case, petitioner relied on the expert opinion of Jean-Ronel Corbier, a pediatric neurologist. Dr. Corbier offered his medical opinion that “a prolonged seizure, especially a prolonged febrile seizure, can change the infant’s brain” and thereby significantly aggravate a preexisting condition such as a SCN1A genetic mutation. Id. at *9. Specifically, Dr. Corbier testified that a person with a SCN1A mutation could potentially experience a range of outcomes from benign migraines to much more severe conditions. He opined that the broad spectrum of disorders was not explained solely by genetics and was likely caused to some extent by environmental factors. In Matthew’s case, Dr. Corbier testified that the second dose of the DTaP vaccine was an environmental factor that caused a fever and a prolonged febrile seizure, which damaged Matthew’s brain and significantly aggravated his ultimate outcome. While Dr. Corbier acknowledged that Matthew’s EEG and MRI test results were normal shortly after receiving the second dose of DTaP, he asserted that the March 26, 2005 seizure altered Matthew’s brain. “In Dr. Corbier’s view, ‘an immature brain exposed to prolonged febrile seizure will then not have just an isolated event but will have further seizures.’” Id. at *8 (quoting Tr. 99). Dr. Corbier conceded that Matthew was at risk for epileptic conditions because of his SCN1A mutation, but asserted that the vaccine triggered an earlier onset of epilepsy, which damaged Matthew’s brain and altered his outcome for the worse. Dr. Corbier drew support for his opinion from scientific material related to SCN1A mutations. Specifically, Dr. Corbier relied on the Tro-Baumann study for the proposition that there is a connection between vaccination and Dravet syndrome. See Blanca Tro-Baumann et al., A Retrospective Rtudy of 9 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 10 of 17 the Relation Between Vaccination and Occurrence of Seizures in Dravet Syndrome, 52 Epilepsia 175 (2011). Tro-Baumann and colleagues studied 70 patients with Dravet syndrome and SCN1A mutations and noted that 27% of them experienced seizures after vaccination. In more than half of the patients who reported a seizure following vaccination, it was their first clinical manifestation of Dravet syndrome. While the authors of the study concluded that drawing a causal connection between vaccination and onset of Dravet syndrome would be a misinterpretation of the data, Dr. Corbier presented this study as support for his opinion that vaccination is an inciting factor that could trigger early disease onset in genetically susceptible individuals like Matthew. Dr. Corbier’s theory that vaccines cause a more prolonged seizure and that the prolonged seizure inflicts additional damage was based on medical studies which examined whether febrile seizures damage HCN channels. Dr. Corbier testified that “‘these articles show that we have an explanation for prolonged febrile seizures causing permanent changes, permanent epileptic changes in a brain that may start out normal, for example, Dravet patients.’” Decision at *18 (quoting Tr. 50). Dr. Corbier testified that Matthew had suffered some sort of alteration to his brain during his initial seizure, even though he could not point to any medical evidence showing the alleged damage and despite the fact that the neurological tests performed directly after Matthew’s initial epileptic episode yielded normal results. Respondent’s position is that Matthew’s genetic mutation is a factor unrelated to the vaccine and that the mutation is the sole cause of his present condition. The Secretary is willing to concede that the vaccination caused a fever, and that the fever may have triggered a seizure, but whether the seizures started immediately upon the vaccination or later, she argues that Matthew’s outcome is the same as it would have been absent the vaccination. Respondent relies on two experts: Max Wiznitzer, a pediatric neurologist, and Gerald Raymond, a neurologist and geneticist. Both experts supported the Secretary’s position that the vaccine neither caused nor significantly aggravated Matthew’s Dravet syndrome. Dr. Wiznitzer testified about the course of Matthew’s condition and Dr. Raymond supplied information about the interplay between Matthew’s genetic mutation and the function of sodium channels. Both respondent experts agreed with Dr. Corbier only to the extent that the vaccination most likely provoked a fever that triggered the first seizure. Dr. Wiznitzer was of the opinion that Matthew’s SMEI condition was caused solely by the mutation in his SCN1A gene. He asserted that there is no 10 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 11 of 17 medical or scientific evidence that environmental factors can aggravate a SCN1A gene mutation. To the contrary, the Secretary presented a medical study conducted by Yu and his colleagues. See Frank H. Yu et al., Reduced Sodium Current in GABAergic Interneurons in a Mouse Model of Severe Myoclonic Epilepsy in Infancy, 9 Nat. Neuroscience 1142 (2006). It showed how mice with a severe SCN1A mutation were destined to develop seizures even in the absence of a fever or other triggering event. In light of this study and his medical experience, Dr. Wiznitzer concluded that “the initial post- vaccination fever did not affect Matthew’s development because children with SMEI always manifest the disorder even if they do not have a fever.” Decision at *8 (citation and internal quotation omitted). Dr. Wiznitzer also relied on the McIntosh study, which examined 40 patients with Dravet syndrome to see if there was an association between vaccination and disease onset. See Anne M. McIntosh et al., Effects on Vaccination on Onset and Outcome of Dravet Syndrome: A Retrospective Study, 9 Lancet Neurology 592 (2010). The study concluded that there were “no differences in intellectual outcome, subsequent seizure type, or mutation type between” those whose disease manifested directly following vaccination and those whose disease manifested later. Id. at 592. Additionally, McIntosh and her colleagues found “no evidence that vaccinations before or after disease onset affect outcome.” Id. Dr. Wiznitzer opined that McIntosh suggests that children with Dravet syndrome who have an initial seizure in temporal proximity to a vaccination still have similar clinical outcomes to children whose initial seizures are not temporally related to vaccination. Furthermore, Dr. Wiznitzer saw no evidence that Matthew’s brain had been affected by the March 26, 2005 seizure. Dr. Wiznitzer was therefore of the opinion that Matthew returned to baseline and had no readily identifiable lasting effects from the March 26 episode. Dr. Wizniter opined that Matthew’s faulty “wiring” and not the vaccine caused his present condition. Dr. Wiznitzer also addressed Dr. Corbier’s testimony that the medical literature supported his conclusion that prolonged febrile seizures had damaged Matthew’s brain. First, Dr. Wiznitzer pointed out that HCN channels are not the same as sodium channels, with the latter and not the former being altered by the SCN1A mutation. Dr. Wiznitzer explained that HCN channels are located in the hippocampal region of the brain and exist to limit the cell’s excitability through the movement of sodium and potassium ions across the cell membrane. The exchange of sodium and potassium ions balances and polarizes the cell. Sodium channels, by contrast, only regulate the flow of sodium ions. When sodium ions are present, the cell becomes hyper-polarized. 11 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 12 of 17 According to Dr. Wiznitzer, the two types of channels are prescribed by different genes, built differently, and have different components. Dr. Wiznitzer was not comfortable extrapolating the medical studies regarding HCN channels to sodium channels. Respondent’s second expert, Dr. Raymond, explained how sodium channels normally function and how a genetic defect can alter their proper functioning. According to Dr. Raymond, the dysfunction of sodium channels was sufficient to explain Matthew’s outcome, and “it is very clear that based on the present animal investigations, that there is no need to invoke environmental modifiers to explain disease onset or progression.” Decision at *10 (internal quotations omitted). Additionally, Dr. Raymond challenged Dr. Corbier’s assertion that an earlier onset of Dravet syndrome caused a worse outcome by pointing to medical studies supporting an opposite conclusion. The Berkovic group studied 14 patients who experienced their first seizure within 72 hours of receiving the pertussis vaccination and thereafter suffered an alleged encephalopathy and found that 11 of those patients had an SCN1A mutation. Samuel F. Berkovic et al., De-novo Mutations of the Sodium Channel Gene SCN1A in Alleged Vaccine Encephalopathy: A Retrospective Study, 5 Lancet Neurology 488 (2006). Eight of those 11 patients had severe phenotypes of the SCN1A mutation, which correlates to SMEI. Another 3 patients had an SCN1A mutation that was linked to borderline SMEI. This led the researchers to conclude that genetics, rather than the vaccine, caused the epileptic encephalopathy. Berkovic wrote that “individuals with such mutations seem to develop SMEI or SMEB whether or not they are immunized in the first year of life. We do not think that avoiding vaccination, as a potential trigger, would prevent onset of this devastating disorder in patients who already harbour the SCN1A mutation.” Id. at 491. Additionally, Dr. Raymond relied on the study conducted by Brunklaus, which tracked 355 SCN1A mutation-positive patients with Dravet syndrome over 5 years to gather data on disease presentation and manifestation. A. Brunklaus et al., Prognostic, Clinical and Demographic Features in SCN1A Mutation-positive Dravet Syndrome, 135 Brain 2329 (2012). The authors found that the following variables predicted a worse outcome: “status epilepticus, interictal electroencephalography abnormalities in the first year of life, and motor disorders.” Decision at *16. By contrast, variables such as mutation class and the event precipitating seizure did not correlate to a worse outcome. The authors concluded that developmental outcome was not affected by vaccination. 12 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 13 of 17 Dr. Raymond also testified about the location, type, and severity of Matthew’s mutation. Specifically, Dr. Raymond drew on his experience as a geneticist and explained that the following factors would lead him to expect that Matthew’s condition would be severe, irrespective of the vaccination: the fact that the mutation arose de novo; that Matthew’s mutation was the deletion of ten base pairs of nucleotides; and that the mutation arose in a conserved region. Dr. Raymond’s analysis about the significance of Matthew’s genetic mutation is consistent with the laboratory that provided Matthew’s genetic screening, which concluded that the mutation was indicative of a severe manifestation of SMEI. B. The Special Master’s Decision In his decision, the Special Master did not perform an analysis as to each of the Loving factors. Of the six Loving factors, the Special Master focused his analysis on the fourth factor, which corresponds to the first prong of Althen.9 The question asked by the fourth Loving factor is whether petitioner has proven “a medical theory causally connecting such a significantly worsened condition to the vaccination.” 86 Fed. Cl. at 144. The Special Master was not persuaded by petitioner’s theory that the vaccination aggravated the symptoms of the SCN1A mutation, and he accepted respondent’s argument that Matthew’s presentation of Dravet syndrome is completely explained by his genetic mutation. The Special Master thus accepted respondent’s proof of two things, either of which would be inconsistent with a recovery: that the vaccination did not cause any brain damage making the onset of Dravet more serious; and that the manifestation of the SCN1A mutation would not have been any different if the vaccine had not been administered. The first finding is inconsistent with petitioner’s case in chief. The second accepts respondent’s defense. The Special Master considered the parties’ arguments and the expert’s presentations and concluded that the opinions of respondent’s experts were more persuasive than the expert opinion furnished by petitioner: “Dr. Wiznitzer and Dr. Raymond explained the relevant medical concepts and showed how those principles were the foundations for their opinions,” while “Dr. Corbier did not.” Decision at *1. The Special Master summarized his conclusion regarding the weight of the evidence as follows: 9 418 F.3d at 1278. 13 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 14 of 17 Thus, there is no reliable basis for crediting Dr. Corbier’s first theory that people with an SCN1A mutation are vulnerable to developing an adverse reaction to the DTaP vaccine. Similarly, there is no reliable basis for crediting Dr. Corbier’s second theory that vaccines worsen Dravet syndrome by bringing about seizures before they would have occurred otherwise. Although there may be an earlier manifestation, Dr. Corbier has not demonstrated how it affects the child’s outcome. Dr. Raymond and Dr. Wiznitzer rested their opinion on Berkovic, McIntosh, and Brunklaus. Dr. Corbier, on the other hand, had no support for his opinions that the vaccines change the outcome. These studies showed that children with SCN1A mutations have consistent symptoms, regardless of whether the initial seizure followed a [vaccine]. Id. at *17 (citations omitted). Without a medical theory causally connecting the significant aggravation of Matthew’s condition to the vaccine, the Special Master concluded that petitioner had not carried her burden. On the other hand, the Special Master found that respondent had proved by a preponderance of the evidence that a factor unrelated, Matthew’s SCN1A mutation, was the sole cause of his present condition. The Special Master considered the age at which the body switches from reliance on the Na 1.3 channel to the Na 1.1 v v channel and found that it was consistent with Matthew’s onset. The Special Master also held that petitioner had not established that, but for the vaccine, Matthew’s outcome would not be as severe. According to the Special Master, Dr. Corbier was unable to provide any meaningful information about how Matthew’s present condition was different than a typical presentation of Dravet syndrome. Instead, the Special Master found respondent’s expert testimony that vaccination does not affect Dravet syndrome to be more persuasive. Although the aforementioned rationales were sufficient for denying compensation, the Special Master went on to evaluate whether petitioner had established the severity requirement. All of the experts agreed that the vaccine caused Matthew’s fever, which triggered the initial seizure. The Special Master noted, however, that following this initial episode Matthew’s tests results were normal and upon discharge from the hospital, Matthew was in good condition. According to the Special Master, the effects of this initial fever and isolated seizure did not continue for more than six months. Instead, 14 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 15 of 17 the disease that Matthew continues to experience was caused by his genetic mutation. II. On Review As we suggested earlier, the Loving analysis may not be an ideal fit in dealing with a child who has a genetic mutation that is asymptomatic prior to vaccination. It is not entirely clear from the Special Master’s analysis what conclusions he came to with respect to the first three Loving factors: “(1) the person’s condition prior to administration of the vaccine, (2) the person’s current condition (or the condition following the vaccination if that is also pertinent), [and] (3) whether the person’s current condition constitutes a ‘significant aggravation’ of the person’s condition prior to vaccination.” 86 Fed. Cl. at 144. Dealing with the fourth factor whether petitioner has proved a causal connection between the aggravation and the vaccination would seem to assume that petitioner has established an after condition that is a significant aggravation of the before condition. Although the outcome in this case is the same, we are not persuaded that petitioner has proved that Matthew’s current condition is a significant aggravation of his prior condition, if that prior condition assumes a genetic anomaly which will manifest in Dravet syndrome. We sympathize with the challenge to the parties and Special Master in dealing with the present tragic circumstances. For her part, petitioner concedes, as she must, that in his condition before vaccination, Matthew had a genetic defect, although he appeared asymptomatic at the time. The Special Master concluded, based on sound medical evidence, that this fact meant that Matthew would develop Dravet syndrome. Respondent, for its part, concedes that before the vaccine Matthew did not have seizures, but that after the vaccination, he quickly developed a fever and a seizure which can be causally linked to the vaccination. It is also undisputed that Matthew continued to have seizures. From this, petitioner asserts that Matthew’s preexisting genetic condition was significantly aggravated because he experienced a change for the worse on March 26, 2005, when Matthew “change[d] from a child who did not have seizures to a child who has frequent seizures.” Mot. for Review at 7. Characterizing Matthew’s condition before and after as petitioner proposes would appear to suggest a significant aggravation. The problem for petitioner, however, is that implicit in Matthew’s before condition is the genetic anomaly which, as a practical matter, undisputedly will lead to 15 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 16 of 17 continuing seizures. The subsequent seizures and development of Dravet syndrome, given the findings on the lack of connection to the vaccination, cannot be attributed to the vaccine. In sum, if we view the significant aggravation as the ongoing seizures, Matthew’s condition prior to vaccination included the genetic abnormality and the inevitable Dravet syndrome. There is thus no significant aggravation and no causal connection.10 If we view the initial fever and seizure as the aggravation, there is a causal connection but no significance to the aggravation. The seizure was short-lived. Matthew had recovered from this episode within a few days, and the injury is thus not severe under § 300aa-11(c)(1)(D)(i). The causal connection between the vaccination and the initial fever, in other words, is insufficient to establish liability. Petitioner’s best hope for establishing liability was to attempt to prove that Matthew’s before condition was that of a child who would ultimately develop seizures, but who, after the vaccination, is a child whose seizures and developmental delay are more severe because of the vaccine. We have reviewed the Special Master’s careful analysis of the evidence about this connection and find no basis for overturning his finding that petitioner did not demonstrate a causal connection between the vaccine and a heightened severity of symptoms. He found Drs. Wiznitzer and Raymond’s evidence more persuasive than that of Dr. Corbier. We find no basis for overturning his analysis. Petitioner also argues that the Special Master elevated her burden of proof by requiring her to establish that the vaccine affected Matthew’s ultimate outcome. Petitioner is correct that it is not her burden to prove what Matthew’s ultimate prognosis would have been, but for the vaccination. Indeed, even if the ultimate prognosis were the same with and without the 10 There have been numerous prior determinations that the SCN1A mutation was the sole cause of the child’s Dravet syndrome. See, e.g., Stone/Hammitt v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 676 F.3d 1373 (Fed. Cir. 2012), reh’g en banc denied 690 F.3d 1380, cert. denied sub nom. Stone v. Sebelius, 133 S.Ct. 2022 (Apr. 29, 2013); Deribeaux v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 717 F.3d 1363 (Fed. Cir. 2013); Snyder/Harris v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 553 Fed. App’x 994 (Fed. Cir. 2014); Barnette v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 110 Fed. Cl. 34 (2013). 16 Case 1:07-vv-00605-EGB Document 135 Filed 07/10/15 Page 17 of 17 vaccination, there would still be room, presumably, to argue that for at least six months the child’s condition was significantly worse than it would have been without the vaccination. We view the Special Master’s statements concerning ultimate outcome, however, in the context of respondent’s theory of alternative causation. In the circumstances of this case, the “ultimate” outcome and the significant aggravation petitioner attempted to prove were one and the same and neither can be attributed to the vaccination. CONCLUSION Because the Special Master’s decision was in accordance with the law, and was not otherwise arbitrary or capricious, we affirm. For the reasons set forth above, we deny petitioner’s motion for review. The clerk is directed to enter judgment accordingly. No costs. s/Eric G. Bruggink ERIC G. BRUGGINK Judge 17